摘要
为探究中国居民杠杆率与居民消费之间的整体关系和在不同杠杆率水平下的异质性特点,在对居民杠杆率与居民消费的理论关联与传递机理进行了相关探讨之后,结合CFPS提供的微观家庭面板数据,利用双向固定效应模型对家庭杠杆率与家庭各类消费支出之间的整体关系进行了实证检验。研究发现,家庭杠杆率与家庭的总支出、消费性支出、生存型消费支出、发展型消费支出都表现出了显著的负向相关关系,杠杆率与生存型消费的关系程度相较发展型消费要更大。家庭收入的提升对各类消费支出的贡献均较为明显,家庭财富与发展型消费的关系则更为紧密。在异质性特征上,中低杠杆家庭的消费支出在杠杆率发生变动时所表现的波动幅度要明显高于高杠杆家庭,中低杠杆家庭收入增长对消费支出的贡献作用也要更强。生存型消费支出随杠杆率变化的程度均高于发展型消费支出。居民杠杆率的快速上涨不利于居民消费支出的扩大与消费质量的提升,居民收入与财富水平的增长对于扩大消费支出具有直接和显著的效果,特别是对于中低杠杆家庭其效果可能更为明显。宏观调控部门应合理控制居民杠杆率的整体水平,利用综合举措提高居民的收入水平,推动提高供给质量、改善供给结构,完善社会保障体系建设,以实现居民消费的不断增长和消费结构的不断改善。
In order to explore the general relationship between the resident’s leverage ratio and the resident’s consumption in China,as well as the heterogeneous features under different leverage ratio,after discussing the theoretical relation and transmission mechanism of the household leverage ratio and the household consumption,and combining the micro-family panel data provided by CFPS,this paper empirically tests the overall relationship between the household leverage ratio and the household consumption expenditure by using the two-way fixed effect model.The study found that the household leverage ratio showed a significant negative correlation with the total household expenditure,consumption expenditure,survival consumption expenditure and development consumption expenditure,and the degree of relationship between leverage ratio and survival consumption was larger than that of development consumption.The contribution of household income increase to all kinds of consumption expenditure is obvious,and the relationship between household wealth and developmental consumption is closer.In heterogeneous features,the household consumption expenditure of the middle-lower leverage is obviously higher than that of the high leverage in the presentation of wave range upon the changes of leverage ratio,and the household income increase of the middle-lower leverage has a stronger contribution to the consumption expenditure.The consumption expenditure of the survival type is higher than that of the development type with the change extent of the leverage ratio.The quick increase of the resident’s leverage ratio is not beneficial to the expansion of the household consumption expenditure and the improvement of the consumption quality.The increase of the resident’s income and wealth level has immediate and obvious effect to the expansion of the consumption expenditure,especially more obvious to those households of middle-lower leverage.The department of the micro-adjustment should reasonably control the general level of the resident leverage ratio,and use comprehensive measures to increase the resident’s income level,promote and improve the quality of supply-provision,reform the structure of supply and provision,perfect the construction of social protection system,so as to realize the continuous increase of the household consumption and the steady improvement of the consumption structure.
作者
黎鹏
闫俊
LI Peng;YAN Jun(School of Business,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China)
出处
《南宁师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2020年第3期65-82,共18页
Journal of Nanning Normal University：Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“‘一带一路’中我国面向东盟的地缘经济开放战略优化研究”(17AJL012)。
关键词
居民杠杆
居民消费
消费增长
消费异质性
household leverage
household consumption
consumption increase
consumption heterogeneity
