摘要
随着医院规模的不断扩大,医院财务管理趋于复杂化,基于业务经费预算不当而造成的经济损失严重影响到医院运行效率和经济效益。将传递函数模型引入到医院业务收入预测中,利用传递函数对选定的参数进行稳定性处理,获得稳定的白噪声时间序列,通过确定输入时间序列和输出时间序列的动态关系,实现对输出时间序列的预测。以某一市三甲医院为对象,通过实例验证指出该医院业务收入的增长主要得益于服务质量和技术能力的提升而增长的出院人数。相较于传统ARIMA模型,传递函数模型结果更接近预测结果值,能做出较为精确的预测。
With the continuous expansion of the scale of the hospital,the financial management of the hospital tends to be complicated,and the economic losses caused by the improper budget of the operational funds seriously affect the efficiency and economic benefits of the operation of the hospital.In this paper,the transfer function model is introduced into the prediction of hospital business income,and the stability of the selected parameters is processed by using the transfer function,and a stable white noise time series is obtained.By determining the dynamic relationship between the input time series and the output time series,the prediction of the output time series is realized.Taking the third grade A hospital in a city as the object,it is proved by an example that the growth of the business income of the hospital is mainly due to the improvement of service quality and technical ability.The number of people discharged from hospital has increased as a result of the rise.Compared with the traditional ARIMA model,the results of the transfer function model are closer to the predicted results and can make a more accurate prediction.
作者
丁翠和
DING Cuihe(Dali Prefecture People's Hospital, Dali, Yunnan 671000, China)
出处
《微型电脑应用》
2020年第5期153-155,共3页
Microcomputer Applications
关键词
传递函数模型
业务收入
出院数量
医院财务
transfer function model
business income
discharge quantity
hospital finance
