摘要
目的分析广东省1990-2018年来登革热疫情的时间分布规律,为提前预警与防控策略的及时实施提供参考依据。方法收集广东省1990-2018年登革热疫情资料,用描述性流行病学方法分析其时间流行特征。结果1990-2018年共报告登革热病例69018例,死亡11例。高发病年份包括1995年(6812例)、2002年(1348例)、2006年(1010例)、2013年(2894例)、2014年(45189例)、2015年(1683例)、2017年(1662例)和2018年(3316例),年发病率1.099/10万~42.455/10万;低发病年份表现为散发,年发病率稳定在0.000/10万~0.903/10万之间;2014年大流行期间的发病数占总数的65.47%,高发病年份的合计发病数占总数的92.60%,死亡数占72.73%。84.33%的病例发病于9、10月。1990-2002年,首发病例月份随暴发周期在3-12月间浮动,2003-2011年波动范围在3-7月,2012年以来连续数年3月份即出现首发病例,高低发病年份首发病例月份比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。1990-1996年,全年发病持续月数随暴发周期在0~8个月间浮动,1997-2004年稳定在5~7个月,2005-2018年呈上升趋势,其中2015年以来数年均全年发病,高低发病年份发病持续月数比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。高发病年份1-7月累积病例数为1995年183例,2002年102例,2006年13例,2013年170例,2014年287例,2015年54例,2017年104例,2018年121例;低发病年份均少于100例,高低发病年份1-7月累积病例数差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论广东省登革热1990-2018年来发病数量呈上升趋势,首发病例月份愈发提前,发病持续月数呈增多至全年发病趋势。当8月份前累积病例大于100例时,当年很可能成为高发病年份,需引起充分重视并提前采取预防控制的有效措施。
Objective The temporal distribution of dengue fever cases in Guangdong province in recent years was analyzed to provide references for the timely implementation of early warning,prevention and control.Methods Data of dengue fever epidemic in Guangdong province from 1990 to 2018 were collected and the temporal dynamic was analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method.Results A total of 69018 cases and 11 deaths of dengue fever were reported from1990 to 2018.The high incidence years included 1995(6812 cases),2002(1348 cases),2006(1010 cases),2013(2894 cases),2014(45189 cases),2015(1683 cases),2017(1662 cases)and 2018(3316 cases),with the annual incidence ranging from 1.099/100000-42.455/100000.The cases occurred in low incidence years were sporadic,and the annual incidence was stable between 0.000/100000-0.903/100000.The number of cases during the 2014 pandemic accounted for 65.47%of the total.92.60%of the cases and 72.73%of the deaths occurred in the high incidence years and84.33%of the cases occurred in September and October.From 1990 to 2002,the month of the first case fluctuated with the outbreak cycle from March to December,and the fluctuation range from 2003 to 2011 was from March to July.Since 2012,the first case occurred in March for several consecutive years.There was a statistically significant difference(P<0.05)in the month of the first case between the high and low incidence years.From 1990 to 1996,duration months fluctuated with the outbreak cycle from 0-8 months,stabilized at 5-7 months from 1997 to 2004,and showed an upward trend from 2005 to2018.There was a statistically significant difference(P<0.05)in the duration months between the high and low incidence years.The cumulative number of cases from January to July in the high incidence years was 183 in 1995,102 in 2002,13 in 2006,170 in 2013,287 in 2014,54 in 2015,104 in 2017 and 121 in 2018 while the low incidence years were less than 100.There was a statistically significant difference(P<0.05)in the cumulative cases from January to July between the high and low incidence years.Conclusions The incidence of dengue fever in Guangdong province has been on the rise in recent years,with the month of first case showing up earlier and duration months increasing to whole year.When the cumulative cases before August are more than 100,the year is likely to become a high incidence year,which requires full attention and effective preventive control measures should be taken in advance.
作者
习佳成
程晓敏
胡欢
廖聪慧
郭中敏
陆家海
XI Jia-cheng;CHENG Xiao-min;HU Huan;LIAO Cong-hui;GUO Zhong-min;LU Jia-hai(School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510080;Laboratory Animal Center,Sun Yatsen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510080;Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Control of Ministry of Education,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510080;Ministry of Education,Guangdong Provincial Research Center for Severe Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Technology,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510080,China)
出处
《热带医学杂志》
CAS
2020年第4期460-464,共5页
Journal of Tropical Medicine
基金
国家科技重大专项(2018ZX10101002-001-001)
广东省科技计划项目(2018B020207013)
广东省重点领域研发计划项目(2018B020241002)。
关键词
登革热
时间动态
流行病学
Dengue fever
Temporal dynamic
Epidemiology
