摘要
为了提高导弹贮存寿命估计的准确性,提出了一种基于退化失效与突发失效竞争的导弹贮存寿命估计方法。基于建模假设,建立导弹竞争失效模型;采用赤池信息准则(AIC)来确定导弹退化过程的最优随机过程模型,进而建立其退化失效模型;采用威布尔分布和比例危险模型,建立基于退化量影响的突发失效模型;采用极大似然估计算法,求解模型未知参数。结合实例分析,验证了所建模型的正确性和优势。
In order to improve the accuracy of missile storage lifetime estimation,a missile storage lifetime estimation method based on degradation failure and outburst failure competition is proposed.Based on the modeling hypothesis,the missile competition failure model is established.Akaike Information Criterion(AIC)is used to determine the optimal stochastic process model of the missile degradation process.The degradation failure model is established.The Weibull distribution and the proportional hazard model are used to establish the outburst failure model based on the influence of the degradation.The maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)algorithm is used to obtain the unknown parameters of the model.An example is analyzed to verify the correctness and advantages of the model built in this paper.
作者
解江
王泽洲
李飞
李姗姗
XIE Jiang;WANG Ze-zhou*;LI Fei;LI Shan-shan(Institute of Economics,Northwest University of Politics and Law,Xi’an 710063,China;Equipment Management and UAV Engineering College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710051,China)
出处
《火力与指挥控制》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第5期146-149,156,共5页
Fire Control & Command Control
基金
中国博士后科学基金(2017M623415)
国家社会科学基金资助项目(17BGL270)。
关键词
贮存寿命评估
竞争失效建模
突发失效
退化失效
storage lifetime estimation
competition failure modeling
outburst failure
degradation failure
