摘要
我国人口老龄化现象日益凸显,养老地产行业具有广阔前景,但目前行业发展较为混乱。文章基于Van Damme模型,构建养老地产开发决策的两阶段演化博弈矩阵,并以激励理论为视角,将不同激励力度情形分为不同的演化路径,讨论不同路径下开发商和政府的行为策略选择,并运用雅可比矩阵和MATLAB数值模拟相结合的方法分析其稳定状态。结果表明,不仅开发成本、开发收益和激励力度等单个数值的变动会影响养老地产行业的发展速度和路径,而且它们之间的相互作用也对行业发展产生重要影响。面对我国人口老龄化的严峻形势,政府的政策需要适时调整,提高对开发商的激励力度,降低开发成本,促进对开发商和政府的激励并行,综合运用多种激励方式,在吸引开发商布局养老地产行业、充分发挥政府的监管作用、避免单一补贴政策失效上下功夫,以引导养老地产行业良性发展。
The aging of China’ s population is increasingly prominent,and the pension real estate industry has broad prospects,but the industry development is currently chaotic.Based on the Van Damme model,this paper constructs a two stage evolutionary game matrix for the decision-making of pension real estate development.From the perspective of incentive theory,different incentive situations are divided into different evolutionary paths.The behavioral strategies of developers and governments under different paths are discussed.The Jacobian matrix and MATLAB numerical simulation were used to analyze its steady state.The results show that not only changes in individual values such as development costs,development benefits and incentives will affect the development speed and path of the pension real estate industry,but the interaction between them also will have an important impact on the development of the industry.Facing the grim situation of China’s aging population,government policies need to be adjusted in a timely manner to increase incentives for developers,reduce development costs,promote parallel incentives for developers and the government,and comprehensively use multiple incentive methods.The government should work hard to attract developers to deploy the pension real estate industry,give full play to the government’s regulatory role,and avoid the failure of a single subsidy policy to guide the healthy development of the pension real estate industry.
作者
傅沂
李海青
FU Yi;LI Hai-qing(School of Business,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China)
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第7期98-108,共11页
East China Economic Management
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“基于演化博弈的我国养老地产产业链升级模式与路径研究:路径构造框架的视角”(17YJC790035)。
关键词
人口老龄化
养老地产
两阶段演化博弈
激励理论
数值模拟
population aging
pension real estate
two-stage evolutionary game
incentive theory
numerical simulation
