摘要
城市交通与城市存在耦合发展的特征,城市发展带动交通需求增长并产生大量的交通碳排放,深入理解城市发展对交通碳排放的驱动机制是实现城市交通和城市协同低碳发展的重要前提。作者首先利用油品分摊法估算了1995—2016年北京市交通碳排放量,随后基于城市发展对交通碳排放驱动机制的理解,利用城市异速标度律探析城市规模与交通碳排放的关系,利用STRIPAT模型分析城市发展对交通碳排放的综合驱动作用。结果显示,北京市交通碳排放总量持续增长,增速高于城市规模扩张速度,呈超线性关系;人口规模、城市化进程、经济规模、产业结构、空间规模、交通基础设施建设都正向驱动交通碳排放增长,能源技术进步抑制交通碳排放增长;城市化进程推进的影响最为显著、经济规模的贡献度最大。根据分析结果提出北京市交通低碳发展的建议在城市化进程中提高交通效率,在经济发展中加大节能减排力度、尽早实现脱钩发展,遏制城市无序蔓延、转变交通基础设施供给理念,大力发展能源技术、提高能源效率。
The coupling of urban transportation and urban development indicates that urban development can increase the demand for urban transportation and result in a lot of transportation emissions.Therefore,an in-depth understanding of the driving mechanism of urban development on transportation emissions is a crucial prerequisite for coordinated urban transportation and low carbon urban.Based on the oil product allocation method,this article estimated the urban transportation emission in Beijing from 1995 to 2016.Then the relationship between urban scale and transportation emission is analyzed based on the urban allometric scaling law.Finally,the driving mechanism is analyzed by the STRIPAT model.The results indicate that the total urban transportation emission in Beijing has increased,and its growth rate is higher than the urban expansion rate,which shows a superlinear relationship.Population size,urbanization process,economic scale,industrial structure,spatial scale and infrastructure construction are positive factors of transportation emission.Whereas energy technological advancement as a negative driving factor can restrain the growth of transportation emission.Urbanization process has the most significant impact on urban transportation emission,and economic scale has the greatest contribution to the growth of transportation emission.Based on the results,we make a few policy recommendations for low-carbon urban transportation emission,which include improving transportation efficiency,energy conservation and emission reduction,the decoupling of transportation emission and urban development,restriction of urban expansion,updating the concept of transportation infrastructure supply,developing energy technology and improving energy efficiency.
作者
孙岩
张昱
刘学敏
SUN Yan;ZHANG Yu;LIU Xue-min(Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;Research Center for Resource Economy and Policy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)
出处
《城市与环境研究》
CSSCI
2020年第1期81-95,共15页
Urban and Environmental Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国低碳城市建设评价指标体系研究”(批准号15ZDA055)。
