摘要
利用1961—2016年江苏省70个站点的逐日降水资料和暴雨定义,分析了江苏省半个世纪以来暴雨发生的年代际时空变化特征,并分析了不同分布型El Nino发展年份对江苏省夏季降水和暴雨的影响特征。结果表明江苏省暴雨主要集中在6—8月,暴雨日数占全年的73.6%,尤其又以7月为最多;暴雨总的分布特点为苏北多于苏南,淮北西北部及苏南东部最少;江苏暴雨发生频次具有明显的年代际变化,且各地区暴雨的年代际变化有一定差异,频发期为1960s、1990s至今,尤其是1990s以来,全省暴雨增多趋势明显,且2011年之后雨带明显南移;东部型El Nino发展年份较中部型El Nino年份的环流形势更有利于导致江苏夏季降水偏多,尤其是沿江苏南地区与常年同期均值有显著性差异。
Based on the daily precipitation data and the definition of rainstorm in 70 stations in Jiangsu Province from 1961 to 2016,this paper analyzes the interdecadal spatiotemporal variation characteristics of rainstorms in Jiangsu Province in the past half century,and the characteristics of the impact of the development years of ENSO of different distribution patterns on summer precipitation and rainstorms in Jiangsu Province.The results show that the rainstorms in Jiangsu Province are mainly concentrated in June and August,and the number of rainstorm stations accounts for 73.6% of the whole year,especially in July.The rainstorms in the northern Jiangsu are more than that of southern Jiangsu,and are least in Northwest of the northern Huaihe area and the East of the southern Jiangsu.The frequency of rainstorms shows obvious interdecadal variations,and the interdecadal variations of the regional rainstorms are different.The frequent periods of rainstorms are the 1960s and the period from 1990s to the present.In particular,since the 1990s,a marked increase has been shown in the number of rainstorms across the province,and the rain belt has obviously moved southward since 2011.Compared with the central ENSO years,the circulation of eastern ENSO years is more favorable to lead to more precipitation in Jiangsu Province in summer.In particular,there is a significant difference between the precipitation and the mean value of the same period in the southern Jiangsu Province.
作者
项瑛
巩庆
艾文文
蒋薇
程婷
XIANG Ying;GONG Qing;AI Wenwen;JIANG Wei;CHENG Ting(Jiangsu Climate Center,Nanjing 210009,China;Korla Meteorological Bureau,Xinjiang Korla 841000,China;Jiangsu Meteorological Service Center,Nanjing 210008,China;Jiangsu Meteorological Information Center,Nanjing 210008,China)
出处
《气象科学》
北大核心
2020年第2期180-190,共11页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(2013CB430200)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306050)
江苏省气象局重点项目(KZ201606)。
关键词
暴雨
时空分布
经验正交函数
EL
Nino
rainstorm
time-space distribution
empirical orthogonal function
El Nino
