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变电站单间隔Markov模型及检修策略分析

Analysis of Markov model and maintenance strategy for single interval in substation
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摘要 科学、合理地安排站内一、二次设备检修周期,节约电网公司设备维护成本,是可靠性评估中的重要问题。本文以变电站最小间隔为单元,建立单间隔下的6状态Markov模型;利用某地区电网10年的缺陷及台帐数据,分析其不可用率与定检周期的关系、不同设备类型下的不可用率情况。分析表明,间隔不可用率会随着定检周期的增大呈现先下降后上升的趋势,可定制不可用率最小化的最优定检周期;同时,基于不同设备类型下的不可用率及失效率分析,可找出不同设备类型下故障原因或厂家,为技术人员分析设备家族性缺陷提供了理论支撑。 Scientifically evaluating the reliability of power grid equipment, arranging its maintenance and economizing the maintenance cost of equipment in power grid company is one of the most significant issue in reliability evaluation. This paper establishes a 6-state Markov model with the minimum interval of substation as a unit, and analyses the relationship between the unavailability rate and the maintenance intervals, and the unavailability rate under different equipment types by using the 10-year deficiencies and account data of a regional power grid. The conclusion is drawn: the unavailability rate will first decrease and then increase with the increase of the maintenance intervals, and the optimal maintenance intervals is under the minimal unavailability rate. At the same time, based on the analysis of the unavailability rate and failure rate under different equipment types, the failure causes or manufacturers under different equipment types can be found, which provides theoretical support for technical personnel to analyze the family defects of equipment.
作者 罗麟 张非 Luo Lin;Zhang Fei(State Grid Zhoushan Power Supply Company,Zhoushan,Zhejiang 316000)
出处 《电气技术》 2020年第5期81-83,94,共4页 Electrical Engineering
关键词 可靠性 MARKOV模型 失效率 不可用率 检修策略 reliability Markov model failure rate unavailability rate maintenance strategy
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