摘要
【目的/意义】通过研究微博社区网民的情感交互与舆情观点,有助于在复杂的网络中掌握网民情绪演化从而良性引导网络舆情态势。【方法/过程】基于传播动力学、社会安全阀等理论,结合微博社区中的实际案例,定义事件利益主体并抽象出事件演化的全生命周期,同时,构建SIR演化博弈模型刻画网民情绪的动态演化规律及主体决策博弈演化过程,并通过仿真模拟分析得到系统演化至稳定状态的均衡条件。【结果/结论】结果表明:微博社区中意见领袖与官方媒体感知收益与风险的敏感度对决策行为产生显著影响;官方媒体及时设置有效议程构建安全阀能够防止网民情绪恶化;意见领袖与官方媒体的协同引导能够最大效度地帮助政府管控网络舆情。
【Purpose/significance】By studying the emotional interactions and public opinion expressions of netizens in the Weibo community, it helps to grasp the evolution of netizens’ emotions in a complex network and thus guide the public opinion situation in the network.【Method/process】Based on the theory of propagation dynamics, social safety valve theory and evolutionary game theory, combining multiple actual cases in the Weibo community to abstract the event interest subject and the entire life cycle of the event.The SIR evolutionary game model is constructed to accurately describe the dynamic evolution law of netizens’ emotions and the evolutionary process of subject decision-making games. Finally, the equilibrium conditions for system evolution to a stable state are obtained through simulation analysis of the entire life cycle.【Result/conclusion】The results show that the perceived revenue and perceived risk sensitivity of opinion leaders and official media in the Weibo community have a significant impact on decision-making;official media can effectively prevent the deterioration of Internet users’ mood by setting an effective agenda to build a safety valve;opinion leaders and the coordinated guidance of the official media can effectively help the government to guide the crisis of public opinion online.
作者
郭爽
万立军
GUO Shuang;WAN Li-jun(School of Management,Harbin Normal University,Harbin 150025,China)
出处
《情报科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第5期132-140,共9页
Information Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“智慧型社区养老共享共治机制研究”(18BGL260)。
关键词
微博社区
情绪演化
SIR演化博弈模型
安全阀
Weibo community
emotional evolution
SIR evolution game model
safety valve
