摘要
为定量研究影响滑坡不同因素的敏感性大小,同时考虑滑坡材料的空间变异性,提出了一种基于灰关联度Monte-Carlo法的滑坡评价方法,对下坪滑坡的渗透稳定敏感性及失效概率进行了数值模拟。结果表明,不同影响参数对滑坡稳定性影响大小排序为库水位水平h>降雨强度q>内摩擦角φ>粘聚力c,降雨与库水位水平是影响滑坡稳定的主要因素,而粘聚力与内摩擦角是影响滑坡稳定的次要因素;当库水位水平越低而降雨强度越高,滑坡的破坏概率呈现直线式上升。因此在低水位遇高降雨情况下,需对滑坡进行实时监测,以便及时采取措施。研究结果为评价滑坡稳定性提供了一个新思路。
In order to quantitatively study the sensitivity of different factors affecting landslide and consider the spatial variability of landslide materials,a landslide evaluation method based grey correlation degree and Monte-Carlo method was proposed.The seepage stability sensitivity and failure probability of Xiaping landslide were numerically simulated.The results show that the order of influence of different parameters on landslide stability is as follows:reservoir water level h>rainfall intensity q>internal friction angleφ>cohesion c.Rainfall and reservoir water level are the main factors affecting landslide stability.Cohesion and internal friction angle are the secondary factors that affect the stability of landslide.The failure probability of landslide increases linearly when the reservoir water level is lower and the rainfall intensity is higher.Therefore,under the condition of high rainfall and low water level,it is necessary to monitor the landslides in real time and take measures in time.The results provide a new way to evaluate the stability of landslide.
作者
宋承裕
SONG Cheng-yu(Kunshan Dengyun Vocational College,Kunshan 215300,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2020年第3期138-140,167,共4页
Water Resources and Power
