摘要
配电网馈线重过载运行是影响配电网可靠性的重要因素,为了掌握配电网馈线运行情况和预警馈线风险状况,提出了配电网馈线负荷预测及风险预警分析方法。首先基于用户负荷特性分析,采用聚类分析方法将用户类别进行细分。其次开展负荷分布预测,并基于用户聚类分析结果,确定用户负荷叠加结果,提出馈线负荷预测方法。然后基于馈线负荷结果,考虑馈线重过载运行对配电网供电可靠性的影响程度,提出馈线风险评估和风险预警方法。最后通过实例分析验证了研究成果的有效性。
The overload of the feeder is an important factor that affects the reliability of distribution network. In order to master the operation status of the distribution network feeder and early warn the risk in advance, this article proposes the method of network load forecast and early warning analysis for distribution network. Firstly, based on the analysis of user load characteristics, the user category is used to subdivide by the clustering analysis method. Secondly, load distribution forecast is carried out. The result of user clustering analysis is used to determine the superposition result of user load, and the method of feeder load forecasting is put forward. Then, based on the feeder load results, considering the influence degree of feeder overload operation on the power supply reliability of distribution network, a feeder risk assessment and risk early warning method is put forward. Finally, the effectiveness of the research results is verified by the example analysis.
作者
李强
赵健
王磊
朱博
LI Qiang;ZHAO Jian;WANG Lei;ZHU Bo(State Grid Henan Electric Power Research Institute,Zhengzhou 450052,China;School of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China)
出处
《供用电》
2020年第5期50-55,共6页
Distribution & Utilization
基金
国网河南省电力公司科技项目“智能电网支撑智慧城市关键技术研究及示范应用”(521702140009)。
关键词
馈线负荷
负荷特性
聚类分析
风险评估
风险预警
feeder load
load characteristic
cluster analysis
risk assessment
risk early-warning
