摘要
以2015年我国首批监测城市的大气污染数据为基础,综合现有文献选取16个变量,考虑氮肥对大气污染的影响,采用克里金插值、全局莫兰指数(Moran’s I)、局部莫兰指数(Moran)和多元线性回归等定量与定性相结合的方法,对大气污染时空分布特征及其社会经济原因进行分析,结果表明:(1)大气污染月、季变化显著:从逐月PM2.5浓度分布形态来看,PM2.5月度累计数据呈“U”字型,其中1月PM2.5累计浓度最大。从PM2.5季节分布来看,春季的PM2.5累计浓度略低于秋季的PM2.5累计浓度,而夏季的PM2.5累计浓度最低,仅为2817.67μg/m^3,即呈现冬季>秋季>春季>夏季的特征。(2)2015年各月PM2.5浓度空间高度聚集。高—高关联(热区)主要为华北地区,集中分布于河北、山西、山东、河南4省及位于长江中下游的湖北省,低—低关联(冷区)主要集中在广东、广西、云南、贵州、西藏以及黑龙江5省;(3)能源消耗总量、煤炭消耗总量、私人汽车拥有量、交通压力、氮肥使用量以及烟(粉)尘排放总量与大气污染的形成机制具有正相关关系,第一产业生产总值与大气污染的形成机制具有负相关关系。最后,本文提出了构建综合执法机构,发挥联合防控作用;改变“GDP至上”的考核方式,注重生态考核;建立信息公开机制,发挥媒体监督作用;转变能源结构,发展清洁能源;积极促进企业行为转变,提升公民低碳出行意识等建议,从而为政府制定大气污染预防与治理政策提供依据。
Based on the air pollution data of the first group of monitoring cities in 2016,selecting 16 parameters,considering the influence of nitrogen fertilizer on air pollution,by the methods of Kriging interpolation,Global Moran’s I,local Moran’s I and multiple linear regression,the paper explored the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of air pollution and socio-economic factors.The results indicate:(1)Air pollution has significant monthly and seasonal changes:From the view of monthly distribution pattern of PM2.5,the cumulative monthly data of PM2.5 is U shape,with the cumulative concentration of PM2.5 being the largest in January.From the point of seasonal distribution of PM2.5,the cumulative concentration of PM2.5 in spring is slightly lower than that in autumn,while the cumulative concentration of PM2.5 in summer is the lowest,only 2817.67μg/m^3.That is,the season concentration of PM2.5 is winter>autumn>spring>summer;(2)The spatial difference of air pollution is significantly.The high-high correlation(hot zone)is mainly in north China,concentrated in Hebei,Shanxi,Shandong,Henan and Hubei province,located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The low-low correlation(cold zone)is mainly concentrated in Guangdong,Guangxi,Yunnan,Guizhou,Tibet,and Heilongjiang province.(3)The total energy consumption,total coal consumption,the number of private car,traffic pressure,the usage amount of nitrogen,and total amount of smoke(powder)dust emissions are positively correlated with the formation of haze,the GDP of the primary industry has a negative correlation with the formation of haze.The suggestions were as follows:constructing comprehensive law enforcement agencies play a role in joint prevention,changing the“GDP first”assessment method and paying attention to ecological assessment,establishing information disclosure mechanism and play the role of media supervision;changing energy structure and using clean energy,promoting the transformation of company behavior actively and enhancing citizens’awareness of low-carbon travelling,and providing foundation for the government to formulate haze prevention and governance policies.
作者
张慧琳
丁文广
田莘冉
许丹阳
ZHANG Huilin;DING Wenguang;TIAN Xinran;XU Danyang(College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2020年第1期123-131,共9页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项(XDA20100102)
软科学专项“甘肃祁连山自然保护区生态环境保护体制机制创新研究”(17CX1ZA041)
甘肃社会科学学术活动基金会资助项目“自然保护区生态环境保护体制机制创新研究”
国家社科基金项目“甘肃省社会救助瞄准与居民家庭经济状况核对体系研究”(16BSH135)
国家科技支撑计划课题“气候变化对沙漠化影响与风险评估技术”(2012BAC19B09)。
关键词
大气污染
PM2.5
时空分布
社会经济原因
air pollution
PM2.5
spatio-temporal distribution
socio-economic factors
