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A data driven time-dependent transmission rate for tracking an epidemic:a case study of 2019-nCoV 被引量:17

一种数据驱动的动态新型流行病传播率的提出及其在2019-nCoV疫情中的应用
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摘要 Ever since the first report of the discovery of an unknown novel coronavirus that had caused pneumonia in Wuhan,China,had filed to WHO by China,on December 31,2019,the government had instituted drastic measures to contain the outbreak of the epidemic.To keep transparency,the China's National Health Commission reports confirmed,suspected,recovered and death case numbers daily,yet the epidemiological community is still calling for more information.Specifically,they want to have the critical"Basic Reproduction,Number"Ro.According to Jones[1]and van den Driessche and Watmough[2],Ro,is defined as the expected number of secondary cases produced by a single(typical)infection in a completely susceptible population. Ever since the first report of the discovery of an unknown novel coronavirus that had caused pneumonia in Wuhan,China,had filed to WHO by China,on December 31,2019,the government had instituted drastic measures to contain the outbreak of the epidemic.To keep transparency,the China's National Health Commission reports confirmed,suspected,recovered and death case numbers daily,yet the epidemiological community is still calling for more information.Specifically,they want to have the critical"Basic Reproduction,Number"Ro.According to Jones[1]and van den Driessche and Watmough[2],Ro,is defined as the expected number of secondary cases produced by a single(typical)infection in a completely susceptible population.
作者 Norden EHuang Fangli Qiao 黄锷;乔方利(First Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources of China,Qingdao 266061,China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling,Ministry of Natural Resources of China,Qingdao 266061,China;Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling,Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology,Qingdao 266237,China;National Engineering Laboratory for Integrated Aero-Space-Ground-Ocean Big Data Application Technology,Qingdao 266061,China)
出处 《Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CSCD 2020年第6期425-427,M0003,共4页 科学通报(英文版)
基金 supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41821004)。
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