摘要
规划命中率可以作为评价一个规划是否有效的定量指标,其中规划发展目标、方案编制及实施管理三者间的关系是决定规划命中率高低的关键。文章从三者间关系的一般规律入手,通过不确定视角分析了现状规划命中率不高的几种现实模式及其缘由。同时,基于可预测视角探讨了提高规划命中率的途径和方法,一是要"有的放矢",在考虑误差范围的情况下确定合理的目标域,目标选择实现由点到面的转变,增加规划目标准确率及规划方案编制的弹性;二是要"对症下药",依照不同城市的特性进行方案编制;三是要"因地适宜",选择最优实施管理路径,及时针对目标变动做相应调整,建立弹性循环的反馈管理体系。
Hit rate of planning can be an index of urban planning effectiveness,and the relationship among development vision,plan compilation,and management is crucial to the hit rate of urban planning.From the general rule of their relationship,the paper analyzes reasons of low hit rate of planning from uncertainty perspective,and studies the approaches of improving hit rate from predictability viewpoint.First is"choose the right battle to fight":a reasonable target in consideration with error range shall be determined to increase target accuracy,and planning shall be elastic.Second is"choose the right weapon to fight":planning shall incorporate with urban characters.Third is"choose the right way to fight":the optimal implementation and management path shall be selected,and it shall adapt to target change with a cycling feedback control system.
作者
王颖芳
华晨
张彦芝
Wang Yingfang;Hua Chen;Zhang Yanzhi
出处
《规划师》
北大核心
2019年第24期36-40,共5页
Planners
关键词
城乡规划
不确定性
可预测性
规划命中率
Urban rural planning
Uncertainty
Predictability
Hit rate of urban planning
