摘要
利用2018年1—10月华南3 km区域高分辨率模式08时、20时起报的气温预报和实况资料,采用线性内插法进行站点预报值处理,并从平均均方根误差及预报准确率的角度,检验分析了贵州省72 h预报内逐24 h最高(低)气温预报质量。结果表明,72 h内随着预报时效的增加,预报准确率差异较小;日最低气温预报准确率相对最高气温平均高出20%左右;08时起报的最高(低)气温预报优于20时的。同时发现,最高(低)气温的预报能力在月份上存在明显差异,6—8月预报性能总体优于其它月份;在24~48 h预报中,东北—西南向一带较贵州其它区域展现出更高的预报能力。在9个主要城市站上,最高(低)气温均表现出较高的预报技巧,其中,20时起报的兴义站24 h最低气温准确率100%。通过对2018年7月18日气温预报质量检验,最高(低)气温及35.0℃以上高温事件预报准确率均在80%左右,较好反映了天气实况。因此,华南3 km高分辨率区域模式对贵州气温预报具有较好的参考价值。
Using the temperature forecast and actual information reported from 08∶00 and 20∶00 of the high-resolution model in the 3Km high resolution region of south China from January to October 2018,the linear interpolation was used to process the forecasted values of the station,and from the perspective of mean RMS error and prediction accuracy,this paper tested and analyzed the quality of the highest(low)temperature forecast 24 h by 24 h in the 72 h forecast in Guizhou province.The results show that,with the increase of prediction increased within 72 hours,there was little difference in prediction accuracy.The forecast accuracy of the daily minimum temperature is about 20%higher than the maximum temperature on average.The maximum(minimum)temperature forecast from 08∶00 was better than 20∶00.At the same time,it was found that the prediction ability of the highest(lowest)temperature varied significantly from month to month.The forecast performance from June to August was better than other months.In the 24~48 h forecast,the northeast-southwest region showed a higher forecast capability than other regions in Guizhou.The highest(low)temperatures in the nine major cities all showed higher forecasting skills.Among them,the minimum temperature accuracy of Xingyi station at 24 h reported from 20∶00 was 100%.Through the quality test of temperature prediction on July 18,2018,the prediction accuracy of the highest(lowest)temperature and high temperature events above 35.0℃was about 80%,which reflected the real weather better relatively.Therefore,the 3Km high resolution regional model in south China has a good reference value for temperature prediction in Guizhou.
作者
李刚
彭芳
孔德璇
刘彦华
吴磊
李彦霖
LI Gang;PENG Fang;KONG Dexuan;LIU Yanhua;WU Lei;LI Yanlin(Guizhou Meteorological Observatory,Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Institute on Mountainous Environment and Climate,Guiyang 550002,China;Meteorological Office of Qianxinan Prefecture,Xingyi 562400,China)
出处
《中低纬山地气象》
2019年第6期1-8,共8页
Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology
基金
气象预报业务关键技术发展专项(YBCJXM(2019)03-07):复杂山地背景下网格要素预报订正技术研发
国家预报员专项(CMAYBY2016-065):深秋初冬时节静止锋减弱北抬对贵州气温的差异性分析
2019年贵州省气象台业务项目:贵州省实况格点偏差订正及研究
关键词
华南
高分辨率
气温
检验
south China
high resolution
temperature
verification
