摘要
对我国主要粮食品种价格波动因素的准确把握,是政府精准有效实施宏观调控进而保障粮食绝对安全的基础。本文基于我国小麦和稻米批发市场价格月度数据,运用ARDL模型,从传统供需因素和金融化因素两个层面对我国主要粮食品种现货价格周期波动进行实证分析。结果发现:供需基本面依然是我国主要粮食品种现货价格周期波动的重要力量;金融化因素在我国主要粮食品种现货价格周期波动中的作用开始凸显,其中国内期货市场和外汇市场对小麦现货价格周期波动的影响比较显著,国外期货市场和外汇市场对稻米现货价格周期波动的影响比较显著。宏观调控不仅要关注供需基本面,也要对金融化因素进行引导和调控,避免粮食品种金融化的负面影响。
Accurate understanding of the price fluctuations of major rations in China is the basis for the government to accurately and effectively implement macroeconomic regulation and control to ensure the absolute safety of rations. Based on the monthly data of China’s wheat and rice wholesale market prices from January 2009 to December 2018, this paper uses the ARDL model to empirically determine the determinants of the spot price fluctuations of China’s major rations from the traditional supply and demand factors and financial factors. analysis. The results show that the fundamentals of supply and demand are still an important force in the fluctuation of the spot price cycle of China’s major rations;the role of financial factors in the fluctuation of the spot price cycle of China’s major rations has begun to emerge, including the domestic futures market and the foreign exchange market. The impact of volatility is significant, and the impact of foreign futures market and foreign exchange market on the fluctuation of rice spot price cycle is significant. Macroeconomic regulation and control should not only focus on the fundamentals of supply and demand, but also guide and regulate financial factors, and resolutely prevent the negative impact of financialization of rations.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2019年第8期71-74,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
关键词
粮食安全
粮食金融化
价格波动
Ration security
Food financialization
Price fluctuation
