摘要
为准确评价尾矿库的安全等级,以黄金洞尾矿库为例,分析影响尾矿库安全的各因素之间的关系,综合运用模糊多元联系度理论与层次分析法(AHP),建立了包含5个影响因素和26个影响因子的尾矿库综合安全评价模型。由AHP得出各项主、客观指标的权重系数,引入模糊多元联系度理论,综合考虑确定性与不确定性因素,处理综合集成问题,构造隶属函数量化指标的实测值。结果表明:黄金洞尾矿库安全等级为Ⅱ级,尾矿库处于较稳定状态。经比较不确定性因素大小,得出尾矿排放(B3)>尾矿坝(B2)>安全管理(B1)>尾矿输送与回水(B5)>排洪系统(B4),说明尾矿排放指标的不确定性因素最大,需对尾矿排放加强管理。该模型得到的评价结果与实际结果相吻合,为尾矿库安全性评价提供了一种可行的方法。
Tailings reservoir is an important facility to store tailings,and it is a dangerous source with high potential energy,there is a risk of dam break.Once the tailings reservoir is crashed,it will seriously affect the safety of people’s lives and property and destroy the local ecological environment,so it is of great significance to evaluate and predict the safety of tailings reservoir.For the tailings pond is a nonlinear complex system,there are many uncertain factors in the process of safety evaluation and prediction of tailing pond,and the factors are interrelated and coupled,so the safety evaluation of tailing pond has uncertainty.In order to accurately evaluate the safety level of the tailings pond,the Huangjindong tailings reservoir was used as a sample,and the relationship between various factors in the safety of the tailings pond was analyzed.Comprehensive application of fuzzy multi-connection theory and analytic hierarchy process(AHP),a comprehensive safety assessment model for tailings pond with five influencing factors and 26 influencing factors was constructed.The weighting coefficient of each subjective and objective index was obtained by AHP,and the evaluation index was graded.In order to quantify some qualitative factors,the fuzzy multi-connection degree theory was introduced to identify the uncertain factors affecting the safety of the tailings pond.The combination of certainty and uncertainty was considered to deal with the comprehensive integration problem,and the measured values of quantitative indicators of membership function were constructed.The results show that the comprehensive safety evaluation score of the Huangjindong tailings pond is 80.052,and its safety grade of the golden hole tailings pond isⅡ,and the tailings pond was in a relatively stable state.By calculating the degree of contact between the first-level indicators,the degree of opposition c is 0.0615,the degree of identity a is 0.5633,a>c,set pair potential is the same potential,and the investment and management of safe production should be strengthened.Using the five-element relationship function to calculate the uncertainty of five influencing factors,through calculation,safety management(B1),tailings dam(B2),tailings discharge(B3),flood discharge system(B4)and tailings transport and return water(B5),the uncertainty of the five indicators is 0.4013,0.4240,0.5132,0.0148 and 0.2644.By comparing the size of the uncertainty factor,tailings discharge(B3)>tailings dam(B2)>safety management(B1)tailings transport and return water(B5)>flood discharge system(B4).In the end,tailings discharge is the most uncertain factor,and it is necessary to strengthen the management of tailings discharge.The evaluation results obtained by the model are consistent with the actual results,which provided a feasible method for the safety evaluation of the tailings pond.
作者
王石
石勇
王万银
WANG Shi;SHI Yong;WANG Wanyin(School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,Jiangxi,China)
出处
《黄金科学技术》
CSCD
2019年第6期903-911,共9页
Gold Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“APAM强化絮网结构后全尾砂料浆流动性能演化机制研究”（编号：51804134）、“渗流—蠕变耦合作用下全尾砂胶结充填体力学性能演化规律及损伤破坏机制”（编号：51804135）
江西省自然科学基金项目“远距离输送过程中添加絮凝剂的高浓度全尾砂浆颗粒分散机理研究”（编号：20181BAB216013）联合资助
关键词
尾矿库
模糊综合评判
层次分析法
安全评价
集对分析
多元联系度
tailings pond
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
analytic hierarchy process
safety assessment
set pair analysis
multivariate contact
