摘要
为明确变化环境下淮河中上游流域未来气候要素的变化趋势和特征,基于地面实测降水、气温资料,检验CMIP5中6个全球气候模式对流域降水和气温的模拟能力并选择较优的3种模式用于分析未来RCP4.5和RCP 8.5排放情景下流域气候要素的变化趋势。结果表明:①历史时段拟合效果相对较优的为CNRM-CM5、HadGEM2-ES和MIROC5,气温的模拟能力优于降水;②3个模式2种排放情景未来年、春、冬季降水均大于基准期,夏、秋季降水除MIROC5大于基准期,其他2个模式均小于基准期;③RCP8.5下CNRM-CM5年、春、夏、HadGEM2-ES年、春、夏、冬、MIROC5年、秋、冬季降水增加趋势显著,RCP4.5下HadGEM2-ES年、春季、MIROC5秋季降水增加趋势显著;其他不显著甚至个别出现减少趋势;④年和季节平均气温除极个别模式和排放情景略低外,其他均高于基准期;年和四季平均气温全部呈现升温趋势。研究表明,流域降水有所增加和减少,气温升温迅速,流域未来气候演变中洪旱灾害风险较大,需要加强水资源管理和洪旱灾害防御能力。
In order to clarify the change trends and characteristics of future climate elements in the upper and middle reaches of Huai River under the changing environment,this paper tests the simulation capability of six global climate models in CMIP5 for precipitation and temperature in Huai River Basin based on the observed precipitation and temperature data on the ground,and then selects three models with better accuracy to analyze the future change trends of climate elements under the emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The results show that:①CNRM-CM5,HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 have better fitting results in historical periods,and the simulation effect of temperature is better than that of precipitation.②The precipitation in the three models under two emission scenarios in the coming year/spring/winter would be larger than that in the reference period.However,in the coming summer/autumn,the precipitation of the two models expect for MIROC5 would be less than that in the reference period.③Under the RCP8.5,the precipitation of CNRM-CM5 in year/spring/summer,HadGEM2-ES in year/spring/summer/winter and MIROC5 in year/autumn/winter would increase significantly.While under the RCP4.5,the precipitation of HadGEM2-ES in year/spring and MIROC5 in autumn would increase significantly,while the precipitation in other models would show an insignificant increasing trend or even a decreasing trend.④With an increasing trend,the average annual and seasonal temperature of most models would be higher than that in the reference period except for very few models and emission scenarios.The study reveals that the precipitation in the basin would increase or decrease,but the temperature would rise rapidly.The risk of flood and drought disasters would be relatively higher in the future,so some measures should be taken to strengthen the management of water resources and the prevention of flood and drought disasters.
作者
林慧
王景才
蒋陈娟
LIN Hui;WANG Jingcai;JIANG Chenjuan(College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2019年第12期43-50,共8页
Pearl River
基金
江苏省高等学校自然科学研究项目(15KJB170019)
江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)
扬州大学博士后科研基金(137070375)
