摘要
针对加速应力下电子部件二元相关退化可靠性分析难题,提出一种基于随机相关的可靠性分析方法。采用考虑个体差异的Wiener过程模型建立边缘退化过程模型,并基于加速因子不变原则建立了模型参数与加速应力的关系;构建了基于Copula函数的随机相关模型,采用两阶段贝叶斯参数估计方法进行参数估计,综合运用散点图、偏差信息准则(DIC)值以及Kendallτ的非参数估计值等方法进行随机相关模型选择,并采用蒙特卡罗仿真方法进行可靠度计算。最后采用实例验证了所提方法有效性,为考虑个体差异的贮存可靠性评估提供了技术支撑。
Targeting at the difficulty of reliability analysis for electronic components with bivariate correlation accelerated degradation data,a reliability assessment method based on random correlation is proposed.The Wiener process model with random effect is used to model the marginal degradation process considering the individual difference,and the relationship between model parameters and acceleration stress is established by using acceleration factor constant principle.Then,a bivariate degradation model with random correlation based on Copula function is established.A two-stage Bayesian method is introduced to facilitate the parameter estimation,and the scatter plots,deviance information criterion(DIC)and the non-parametric estimation of Kendallτare used for random correlation model selection.The reliability calculation is carried out by Monte Carlo simulation method.Finally,an example is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.The paper has significant meaning for the storage reliability assessment considering individual differences.
作者
盖炳良
滕克难
王浩伟
王文双
陈健
宦婧
GAI Bingliang;TENG Kenan;WANG Haowei;WANG Wenshuang;CHEN Jian;HUAN Jing(Naval Aviation University,Yantai 264001,China;Unit 91115 of the PLA,Zhoushan 316000,China;School of Computer Science,Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang 212003,China)
出处
《北京航空航天大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第11期2237-2246,共10页
Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
基金
国家自然科学基金(51605487)~~
关键词
可靠性评估
加速退化数据
二元退化
随机相关
电子部件
reliability assessment
accelerated degradation data
bivariate degradation
random correlation
electronic component
