摘要
本文通过构建包含房产税的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)框架,兼顾居民用房与商业用房,模拟分析房产税改革对主要宏观经济变量的影响。研究结果表明:(1)提高居民用房房产税税率对总消费、投资、房价和总产出等变量的均衡值和波动均以负面影响为主,但会降低社会福利损失;(2)降低商业用房房产税税率对总消费、投资、房价和总产出等变量的均衡值和波动均以正面影响为主,但会提高社会福利损失;(3)提高居民用房房产税税率与降低商业用房房产税税率同时实施时,不仅能够对冲居民用房房产税改革对宏观经济的负面影响,尤其是能够有效对冲改革对投资和总产出的负面影响,还会降低社会福利损失。因此,中国下一步试点改革应当重点关注组合式改革方案。
This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)framework with property tax,which takes into account the residential and commercial housing,to carry out simulation analysis of the effects of property tax reform on the major macroeconomic variables.The results are shown as follows.Firstly,increasing the residential property tax rate has a negative impact on the equilibrium value and fluctuation of total consumption,total investment,house prices and total output,but will reduce social welfare losses.Secondly,reducing the commercial property tax rate has a positive impact on the equilibrium value and fluctuation of total consumption,total investment,house prices and total output,but will increase social welfare losses.Thirdly,when increasing the residential property tax rate and reducing the commercial tax rate,it will not only hedge the negative impact of the residential property tax reform on the macro economy,especially the negative impact of the reform on the investment and total output,but also reduce the loss of social welfare.Thus,China’s next pilot reform should focus on combined reform plans.
作者
李言
LI Yan(Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 310018)
出处
《经济与管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第12期29-42,共14页
Research on Economics and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“人力资本偏向型住房政策与城市发展:理论、机制与效应”(71974174)
