摘要
运用灰色系统理论和拓扑预测法建立灰色模型对新疆玛纳斯县小家鼠秋季数量动态进行预测,预测精度较高。表明该方法在种群动态预测中具有较高应用价值。
The authors establish gray forecasta model by gray system theory to predict house mouse (Mus.musculus) population size in Manas county, Xingjiang.The GM(1,1) model of population size of house mouse in spring is:X_x^((1))(t)=-30.0162EXP(-0.0833t) + 30.0162The GM(1,1) dynamic model of population size in autumn is X_2^((1)) (t) =-1013.8492EXP(-0.0204) + 1029.9892Because there is a big difference between the calculated values and the observed values, we establish topology forecasta model to predict population size in autumn, the result is as follows:ζ_1 = 14%:t_1^((1))(K)=39.5086EXP(0.1508K)-33.8093 ζ_2 = 20%:t_2^((1))(K)=33.9722EXP(0.1507K)-29.8237 ζ_3 = 24%:t_3^((1))(K) =18.3622EXP(0.248K)-13.8847ζ_4 =28%:t_4^((1))(K)=18.8435EXP(0.02439K)-14.0349The new model is of high precision:t_1((0))(K)'s:95.42%, t_2^((0))(K)'s:96.46%, t_3^((0))(K)'s:92.65%, t_4^((0))(K)'s:98.03%.The results of topology forecasta coinside with observed values, especially during high quantity level, the calculated values much better conside with observedva values.The years of appearance of high quantity of hourse mouse are:1986, 1991, 1997, 2008, 2015 in manas county, Xingjiang.
关键词
灰色系统
种群动态
预测
啮齿动物
gray system
gray model
population
dy namic
rodent
