摘要
基于泾河流域55年降水和径流数据,分析流域径流历史演变规律,定量计算气候变化和人类活动对径流量的影响,揭示泾河流域径流变化原因及未来变化趋势,为泾河流域水资源管理及开发利用提供依据。采用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和R/S等方法分析径流演变规律,预测其未来变化趋势。利用滑动t检验、有序聚类和双累积曲线法分析径流突变情况,判断突变年,确定基准期,采用径流还原法分析气候变化和人类活动对泾河流域径流变化的贡献率。结果表明:泾河流域降水量及径流量总体上呈下降趋势,丰枯悬殊,未来一段时间内泾河流域径流量将呈现减少趋势且有一定的持续性。在1961—2015年间,泾河流域突变年分别为1970年、1996年和2003年,由突变点1970年确定泾河流域径流基准期为1961—1969年。径流还原法分析结果表明:人类活动是导致泾河流域径流量减少的主要因素,且影响程度逐时段增加,1970—1995年、1996—2002年及2003—2015年人类活动对泾河流域径流量的贡献率分别为86.81%、87.70%和96.86%。
Based on the precipitation and runoff data of the Jinghe River basin for 55 years,the historical evolution law of runoff in the basin is analyzed,and the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff are quantitatively calculated.The causes of runoff change and future trends in the Jinghe River basin are revealed,a provision of a basis for water resources management and development and utilization in the Jinghe River basin.Linear trend,Mann-Kendall trend test,R/S method and other methods are used to analyze the trend of runoff evolution and predict the future runoff trend.Using the sliding t test,ordered clustering and double cumulative curve method to analyze the runoff mutation,these methods can be employed to determine the mutation year and the reference period.Using the runoff reduction method to analyze the contribution rate of the runoff change of the Jinghe River basin caused by climate change and human activities.The results show that the precipitation and runoff in the Jinghe River basin are generally decreasing,and that the balance between the abundance and the dryness is uneven.In the future,the runoff in the Jinghe River basin will show a decreasing trend and have certain continuity.From 1961 to 2015,the Jinghe River basin mutation years are 1970,1996 and 2003,and the reference period of runoff was confirmd from 1961 to 1969.The results of runoff reduction analysis show that the human activities in the Jinghe River basin is the main factor for the decline of the runoff of the Jinghe River and its influence degree increases chronically.The contribution rates of human activities on the target rivers’runoff are 86.81%from 1970 to 1995,87.70%from 1996 to 2001 and 96.86%from 2003 to 2015 respectively.
作者
杨思雨
姜仁贵
解建仓
朱记伟
王娇
YANG Siyu;JIANG Rengui;XIE Jiancang;ZHU Jiwei;WANG Jiao(State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi'an Universityof Technology,Xi'an 710048,China)
出处
《西安理工大学学报》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第2期186-191,共6页
Journal of Xi'an University of Technology
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0401409)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51509201,51679188,71774132)
陕西省自然科学基础研究基金资助项目(2018JM5031)
关键词
泾河流域
R/S法
变化趋势
归因分析
径流还原法
人类活动
Jinghe River basin
R/S analysis
variation trend
attribution analysis
runoff reduction method
human activity
