摘要
草地贪夜蛾是新入侵我国的重大害虫。2019年1月发现其发生后,至7月5日该虫已入侵我国22个省区1 128个县区,危害面积约830万亩。本文根据我国草地贪夜蛾主要入侵事件的参数,应用直线距离法计算出目前我国该虫扩散传播速度为14.03~14.78 km/d;建立了入侵省级区域数量、县级区域数量、入侵危害面积与入侵时间长度关系模型,分别为Yp=e(0.4235+0.0156T)、Yc=e(2.9857+0.0237T)和Ys=e(-2.4312+0.0364T)。根据所建模型预测出2019年7月中旬被入侵的省级区域数量约为30个,7月底入侵县级区域数量将达到2 300多个,9月上旬入侵危害玉米、甘蔗等作物面积达到最大,约为500万ha。以上关于我国草地贪夜蛾长距离传播扩散研究结果将为预防和控制该虫提供参考。
Fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda , a dangerous invasive species in the world, was found at Jiangcheng, Yunnan Province, China firstly in January, 2019. It infested 22 provinces and 0.553 million ha at July 5 th , 2019. Exploring its expansion pattern is important to prevent S. frugiperda spread and its management. Based on collected data, linear distance methods were used to reveal the spreading speed of S. frugiperda in China as 14.03~14.78 km/day. Models described the relationship between number of infected provinces, number of infected counties, area of infected land and duration after invading the China's Mainland are presented as Y p =e (0.4235+0.0156 T ), Y c =e (2.9857+0.0237 T ), and Y s =e (-2.4312+0.0364 T ), respectively. Based on the three models, S. frugiperda will infecte about 30 provinces at middle of July, more than 2 300 counties at end of July, and about 5 million ha of corn, sugarcane, and other hosts in early of September, 2019.
作者
王磊
陈科伟
陆永跃
WANG Lei;CHEN Ke-Wei;LU Yong-Yue(College of Agriculturr,South China Agriculturaj University,Guangzhou 510642,China)
出处
《环境昆虫学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第4期683-694,共12页
Journal of Environmental Entomology
基金
广东省外来入侵物种风险评估和监测预警共性关键技术研发创新团队建设项目(2019KJ134)
省级农业科技创新及推广项目(2018LM2161)
广东省甘蔗剑麻产业技术体系创新团队项目(2019KJ104-08)
关键词
草地贪夜蛾
入侵
扩散
动态
Spodoptera frugiperda
invasion
expansion
dynamic
