摘要
依托工程实践分析与专家信息调研,率定技术风险、环境风险、经济风险、管理风险4类风险因素,构建投资风险评估指标体系;利用D-S证据理论,建立投资风险评估模型,开展证据融合,并结合最大隶属度原则拟定投资风险评估等级。实例表明:该水电站项目投资风险适中,可以适当修正投资方案后投资。
Based on engineering practice analysis and expert information survey, the risk factors including technical risk, environmental risk, economic risk and management risk are determined, the index system of investment risk evaluation is constructed;D-S evidence theory is used to establish investment risk assessment model, conduct evidence fusion, an investment risk assessment level is formulated based on the principle of maximum membership. The example shows that the investment risk of the hydropower station project is moderate, and the investment plan can be modified properly.
作者
陈国梁
田伟
杨鸣
吴玥
CHEN Guo-liang;TIAN Wei;YANG Ming;WU Yue(College of Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Guodian North Investment Guanyang Wind Power Co.,Ltd,Guilin 541600,China;China Gezhouba Group No.5 Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443002,China;Yuanda Construction (Lingbi) Co.,Ltd.,Suzhou 234000,China)
出处
《价值工程》
2019年第23期99-101,共3页
Value Engineering
关键词
水电工程
投资风险
风险评估
D-S证据理论
层次分析法
hydropower engineering
investment risk
risk assessment
D-S evidence model
analytic hierarchy process
