摘要
基于我国31个省份2001—2018年的面板数据,构建技术创新、金融发展与经济增长三系统耦合模型与空间重心模型,计算并讨论了耦合特征的时空变化与空间匹配状况。结果表明:第一,我国的技术创新增幅最大,但绝对水平最低;经济增长前期上升明显,后期增长相对乏力;金融发展前期相对平稳,后期上升趋势明显。第二,二系统的耦合度均呈现出上升的趋势,其中金融发展-经济增长的耦合度具有明显的引领作用,而技术创新-经济增长耦合度提升幅度最大。第三,各区域三系统的协调度相对较高,但发展度不够理想。第四,各区域三系统耦合度均呈上升趋势,但区域差异较大。因此,我国应切实提高技术创新能力,加强其与金融发展、经济增长的有效结合,促进金融发展与经济增长的良性互动,积极推进东部与其他区域的联动发展,从而进一步提升我国的三系统耦合度。
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2018, a coupling and spatial gravity model for technological innovation, financial development and economic growth is constructed.The spatial-temporal changes and spatial matching of coupling characteristics is calculated and discussed.The results show that:firstly, the technological innovation developed fastest, but its absolute level is the lowest. In the early stage, the economy is strongly increased, but later, the growth is relatively weak. The financial development is relatively stable, and later the rising trend is obvious. Secondly, the coupling degree of the three systems shows an upward trend, in which the coupling degree of financial development and economic growth is in an obvious leading role, while the coupling degree of technological innovation and economic growth has the largest increase. Thirdly, the coordination of the three systems in every region is relatively high, but the development is not ideal. Fourthly, the coupling degree of the three systems in every region shows an upward trend with big regional differences. Therefore, China should effectively improve its technological innovation ability, strengthen its effective combination with financial development and economic growth, promote the positive interaction between financial development and economic growth, and actively promote the linkage development between the east and other regions, so as to further enhance the coupling degree of China’s three systems.
作者
王金涛
Wang Jintao(School of Economics, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China)
出处
《金融理论探索》
2019年第4期17-29,共13页
Exploration of Financial Theory
基金
全国统计科学研究重点项目“我国人口结构变动对经济发展影响研究”(2017LZ42)
关键词
技术创新
金融发展
经济增长
耦合
technological innovation
financial development
economic growth
coupling
