摘要
肉牛产业是推进农业供给侧结构性改革的关键着力点之一。当前,我国肉牛养殖面临生产与市场严重错位的挑战。具体而言,牛肉市场需求快速增长、牛肉价格高位运行且肉牛养殖经济效益良好,但能繁母牛存栏量降幅较大;供需巨大缺口导致牛肉进口量快速增加。基于宏微观数据及调研材料,准确把握当前国内肉牛生产和牛肉消费形势;深入分析肉牛养殖面临挑战的成因。基于此,预测未来我国城乡居民牛肉消费仍将上涨,牛肉价格高位运行仍将持续,而短期内牛存栏量下降态势难以逆转、牛肉进口增长势头难以改变。基于此,提出充分重视肉牛产业在大农业生产中作用、恢复母畜扩群增量计划、构建种草养牛生产模式等选择路径,推动肉牛产业持续健康发展。
The beef cattle industry is one of the key points for promoting the structural reform of the supply side of agriculture. At present, China's beef cattle feeding is facing the challenge of serious misalignment in production and market. Specifically, the demand for beef market is growing rapidly, the price of beef is high, and the economic benefit of beef cattle feeding is good. However, the amount of cattle stocks does not increase, especially for cows. The huge gap between supply and demand has prompted a rapid increase in beef imports. Based on macro-statistical data and micro-statistical data and investigated data materials, the current domestic beef cattle production and beef consumption situation was accurately demonstrated, and the causes of the challenges facing beef cattle feeding were deeply analyzed. The future development trend of the beef cattle industry was scientifically forecasted. In the future, the consumption of beef in urban and rural residents in China would continue to rise. The high price of beef would continue to run. The decline in the stock of cattle would be difficult to reverse in the short term, and the growth momentum of beef imports would be difficult to change. Finally, several solutions were proposed to achieve sustainable and healthy development of the beef cattle industry. The role of the beef cattle industry in agricultural production needed to be valued and the incremental plan for the expansion of cow needed to be restored and a production system of growing grass to raise cows needed to be build.
作者
高海秀
石自忠
王明利
GAO Haixiu;SHI Zizhong;WANG Mingli(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)
出处
《农业经济与管理》
CSSCI
2019年第4期45-52,共8页
Agricultural Economics and Management
基金
中国农业科学院科技创新工程基金项目（ASTIP-IAED-2019-01）
中国农业科学院基本科研业务费专项基金项目（Y2018ZK38）
关键词
肉牛养殖
供需形势
成因分析
战略定位
beef cattle
supply and demand situation
cause analysis
strategic positioning
