摘要
在"高费率"和"基金失衡"的制度背景下,以"不降低待遇"和"维持基金平衡"为约束条件,实证考察了中国城镇职工养老保险降费的可能性及其降费空间。精算分析结果表明,提高征缴率是养老保险降费的必要保证,若维持现行退休政策不变,养老保险仅在短期内存在有限的降费空间;若实行渐进延迟退休,则养老保险制度能够兼顾"降费率"与"提待遇",且在2016~2050年内保持50%的替代率所需的长期精算平衡费率为21.2%;此时征缴率每下降1个百分点,对应的费率需上升0.35个百分点,替代率每提高1个百分点,费率需增加0.4个百分点;此外,财政补贴能够在延迟退休的基础上增加养老保险的降费空间,财政补贴规模每提高1个百分点,降费空间增大0.2个百分点。
Under the background of"high rate"and"fund imbalance",this paper investigates the possibility and space of lowering the contraction rate of pension insurance in China,under the restriction of"no lower treatment"and"maintaining fund balance".The results of the actuarial analysis show that,under the current retirement policy,pension insurance has only a limited space for reduction in fees in the short term.If the retirement ageis postponed,the pension insurance system can both reduce the rate and increase the replacement rate.In the period from 2016 to 2050,pension needs a rate of 21.2% to maintain a long-term actuarial balance for the replacement rate of 50%.And for every 1 percentage point decrease in the levy rate,the contraction rate should be increased by 0.35 percentage points.For each increase in the replacement rate by 1 percentage point,the rate would need to be increased by 0. 4 percentage points. Furthermore,the fiscal subsidy can increase the space for the reduction of pension insurance on the basis of delayed retirement,for every 1 percentage point increase in the size of the financial subsidy,the scope of fee reduction increases by 0. 2 percentage points.
作者
汪润泉
鲁於
杨翠迎
WANG Run-quan;LU Yu;YANG Cui-ying(nstitute of Jiangsu Social Security, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing210046, China;School of Government Audit, Nanjing Audit University, Nanjing 211815 ,China;School of Public Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433 , China)
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第4期23-33,共11页
Population and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“基于就业促进和生活保护的社会保险制度费率调整与保障功能优化研究”(71673176)
关键词
养老保险费率
降费空间
延迟退休
精算平衡
Contraction Rate of Endowment Insurance
Space of Rate Reduction
Delayed Re? tirement
Actuarial Balance
