摘要
基于120县人口监测系统数据,通过13省的二孩生育分析,检验各省间隔政策变迁如何影响二孩生育时间及二孩生育水平。将政策变迁按时期划分,每次政策变动年份为时间t,通过比较每个时期(t-1)年和(t+3)年的时期生育指标来检验政策效应。研究发现,间隔政策的出台及政策收紧对二孩生育水平和时期孩次递进比的下降有显著影响,放松及取消间隔政策导致二孩生育水平和孩次递进比上升。不同的间隔政策及其变迁导致了各时期不同的二孩分布以及政策驱动的二孩间隔递进模式衍变。间隔政策普遍执行后,10年间隔的孩次递进曲线从之前以短间隔(2-3年)为主的左倾斜模式逐渐过渡到长间隔为主(4年以上)的右倾斜模式,间隔政策放松及取消后又逐渐回归短间隔递进为主的左倾斜模式。而一孩到二孩递进的峰值间隔也相应经历了从两年过渡到政策要求的长间隔及再次回归两年间隔的历史变动。还揭示了多元生育间隔政策所导致的地区和时期差异,丰富了二孩生育间隔模式变动规律及二孩生育推迟机制的相关研究。
How birth spacing policies influence second birth rate and how the impact varies by birth spacing policy context across China are the main themes of this investigation.We cover the second birth behavior in 13 Chinese provinces based on the 120 counties population dynamics monitoring system.We take the year of policy change as time t,then compare period fertility indictors at year(t-1) and the year(t+3) for each period to gain a deeper understanding of the policy effect.The comparisons of period fertility indictors of different periods demonstrate the positive contribution of loosening birth spacing policy on TFR2 and PPR12 increases,the significant effects of introduction and tightening birth spacing policy on TFR2 and PPR12 decline.The 10-year fixed PPR12 clearly evidenced how various birth spacing policies lead to different distribution of second births with fixed birth interval and how policy-driven birth spacing patterns developed. The PPR12-10 curve transited from left-skewed before/at the initial stage of birth spacing introduction to right-skewed after universal stable enforcement then again skewed to left after the modifications and final cancelation. Women concentrated their childbearing at two-year interval before/at the initial stage of birth spacing introduction,then concentrate at/after the mandatory birth interval,then shifted back to two years interval after the cancelation of birth spacing policy. Our study contributes to the demographic literature that aims at understanding the birth spacing pattern of China. Furthermore,we draw attention to the role of birth spacing policies in explaining provincial differences in fertility behavior and second birth postponement across time in China.
作者
张翠玲
刘鸿雁
王英安
ZHANG Cui-ling;LIU Hong-yan;WANG Ying-an(North-east Asian Studies College, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China;China Population and Development Research Center, Beijing 100081 , China)
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第4期11-22,共12页
Population and Development
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“中国人口数据综合集成应用平台建设(1949-2015)”(16ZDA089)
国家留学基金委资助
关键词
生育间隔
间隔政策
生育时机
生育模式
Second Birth Interval
Birth Spacing Policy
Birth Timing
Fertility Pattern
