摘要
以我国西南天然林保护工程区森林资源为研究对象,借助天保工程第一期(2000—2010年)森林资源清查统计数据,采取实证研究与数理统计分析相结合的方法,并利用灰色系统预测理论对研究区森林资源动态变化进行分析,确定整个工程区森林资源动态变化的阈限值,预算出二期(2011—2020)天保工程的森林面积、森林蓄积、森林覆盖率的阈限值。森林资源的质量变好、结构趋向合理,正在逐步发挥着越来越重要的生态效益、经济效益和社会效益。西南地区天然林资源呈现出逐步回升并呈可持续发展的趋势,为改善我国生态环境、维护国土生态安全发挥了重要作用。
This paper analyzedthe dynamic changes in forest resources of China Southwest Natural Forest Protection Project (NFPP)areawith the statistical data of forest resources in the first phase (2000-2010) of NFPP, by using the combination of empirical research and mathematical statistics analysis, and the gray system. It could determine the threshold value of the dynamic change of forest resources in the whole proj. ect area, and estimate the threshold value of forest area, forest accumulation and forest coverage rate of the second phase (2011-2020). The results showed that the quality of forest resources has become better and the structure has become more rational. Gradually, more and more important ecological, economic and so. cial benefits are being played. The natural forest resources in the southwestern region have shown a gradu. al recovery and a trend of sustainable development, which plays an important role in improving China's ecological environment and maintaining national ecological security.
作者
郭润小
白新燕
宝力道
国政
GUO Run-xiao;BAI Xin-yan;BAO li-dao;GUO Zheng(Siziwangqi Forestry and Grassland Bureau, Wulanchabu, Inner Mongolia 011800, China;Zhuozi County Forestry Bureau, Wulanchabu 012300,Chian;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Forestry Monitoring and Planning Institute, Hohhot 010020, China;Guilin Aerospace Industry Institute, Guilin 541004, China)
出处
《中国林业经济》
2019年第4期132-134,共3页
China Forestry Economics
基金
林业行业科研专项“天然林保护等林业工程生态效益评价研究”（201304308）
2019年教育部规划基金项目“黄河上游退耕还林工程生态保护评估与生态补偿机制研究”
关键词
天然林资源保护工程
森林资源
动态变化趋势
灰色关联度预测
natural forest resource protection project
forest resources
dynamic trend
grey correlation prediction
