摘要
本文基于中国老年人健康影响因素纵向调查(CLHLS)数据,系统分析我国社区老年服务2005年到2014年的供需动态变化和平衡性。研究表明,10年间我国老年人对社区老年服务的需求和相关供给均有显著增长,供需缺口经历了先增加后减小的过程。但是,社区老年服务在供需结构、地区、城乡间的不平衡进一步凸显:总体供需缺口仍十分严重,生活照料服务供需不平衡加剧,农村和中西部地区老年人需求表达和资源供给的"双重弱势"已经转变为"需求表达弱势消弭,资源供给弱势增强"。Bivariate probit模型结果进一步显示,相比城镇与东部老年人,农村和中西部地区老年人对社区老年服务的需求更强,但其需求却更难得到供给。社区老年服务的供给侧改革应引入多元主体来扩大供给,改善供需平衡性;充分关注需求的持续变动,加强顶层设计的前瞻性,构建以需求为主导的灵活供给体系;更加注重缩减城乡和区域间差距,提升公共服务均等化程度。
Based on Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)data,this paper aims to study the supply-demand dynamics and imbalance in the provision of community elderly services from 2005 to 2014.In the past decade,both demand and supply of community elderly services have increased significantly,with demand-supply gap widening at first and then narrowing.However,the structural imbalance of community elderly services has been further intensified:the overall supply-demand gap remains very huge,the demand-supply gap of daily care services has been aggravated,and for the elderly in rural and central&western areas,whereas previously they experienced the"double disadvantages of demand expression and service supply"compared to their urban and eastern counterparts,their demand expression disadvantage has now disappeared,but the service supply disadvantage has become more serious.The results of Bivariate Probit model further show that in many areas,compared with their counterparts,the elderly in rural areas and the central and western regions have stronger demand for community services,and their needs are less likely to be satisfied.The supply-side reform of community elderly services should improve the balance between supply and demand by introducing diversified suppliers to expand supply,strengthen forward-looking top-level design by building a flexible and demand-oriented supply system,and move faster to ensure equitable access to public services by reducing the urban-rural gaps and regional gaps.
作者
张新辉
李建新
Zhang Xinhui;Li Jianxin(Department of Sociology,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)
出处
《社会保障评论》
CSSCI
2019年第2期122-136,共15页
Chinese Social Security Review
基金
教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“实现人口经济社会健康老龄化的对策研究”(16JJD840004)
关键词
社区老年服务
供需变化
不平衡
供给侧改革
community elderly service
supply and demand dynamics
imbalance
supply-side reform
