摘要
大宗敏感农产品价格异常波动问题始终是社会各界关注的热点话题。选用多重属性兼具的重要大宗农产品——食糖,基于2006～2017年月度频率数据,结合PPM模型展开价格系统非周期性、非规律性的结构性突变特性检验,判别突变拐点、次数、强度、方向,并深入解析异动诱发机理。结果表明:在研究区间内,中国糖业共历经6次异常突变,下降、上升的突变各3次;国际市场和期货市场是触发价格突变的主导,其次为能源市场,且三者与糖价突变方向趋同;上升突变比下降突变成因更为复杂,但多数时候亦是全球化、金融化、能源化属性综合作用的结果,仅在少数阶段或特定时期通胀因素方面表现出微小差异。基于季度频率数据的稳健性检验再次证实了上述结果的可靠性。新时代背景下,为有效应对价格异常波动新特性并确保食糖产业安全,工作重点应从食用性和战略性的传统属性,切换至全球化、金融化、能源化三大新型冲击属性。
The problem of abnormal fluctuations in the prices of large and sensitive agricultural products has always been a hot topic concerned by all sectors of society.This paper is based on the PPM model,and the monthly frequency datafrom 2006 to 2017.The purpose of this study is to identify time nodes,occurrence times and characteristics of the abnormal sugar price.This study combines the actual economic background to explore the mechanism of the abnormal price fluctuation from multiple perspectives.The results are as followings:In terms of mutation frequency,time nodes and direction,China sugar market has experienced six abnormal mutations,including three times rising mutations and three times down mutations;In terms of mutation mechanism,international market and futures market are the two dominant factors of triggering China sugar spot price mutations,followed by the energy market,and the three were related to sugar prices.Mutations tend to be the same;The reason for the rising of mutation is more complicated than that of descending mutation.Most of them are the results of a combination of globalization,finance and energy,with little difference in a few or specific periods of inflation factor.After that,the robustness test is used to further verify the reliability of the results based on the quarterly frequency data.In order to ensure the security of bulk sensitive agricultural products market,we should switch from the traditional attributes of food use and strategy to the three attributes of globalization,financialization and energy in the future.
作者
高群
GAO Qun(Center for Anti-Corruption Studies/School of Public Administration,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第11期57-66,共10页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71763018)
关键词
大宗敏感农产品
结构性突变
PPM模型
市场价格
食糖产业
Bulk Sensitive Agricultural Products
Structural Mutation
PPM Model
Market Price
Sugar Industry
