摘要
通过构建VAR模型以及方差分解研究广东省用水结构与用水总量的动态变化关系,并分析用水结构变化对用水总量变化的贡献率。结果表明:广东省当期及未来用水总量的变化主要受上期用水总量的影响,当期贡献率达到60.4%;农业用水比重变化对当期及未来用水总量变化的影响次之,当期贡献率达到34.1%;工业用水比重与生活用水比重变化对用水总量变化的影响具有一定的粘滞性,最终贡献率分别在9.0%和13.0%左右。
Based on the VAR model and variance decomposition,this paper studied the dynamic relationship between water utilization structure and total water consumption of Guangdong Province,and analyzed the contribution rate of the former to the latter as well.The results showed that the current and future change of total water consumption of Guangdong Province was mainly affected by total water consumption of past one period,and its contribution rate at current period reached 60.4%.The proportion of agricultural water was the second factor with a 34.1%contribution rate at current period.While the influence of the proportion of industrial water and domestic water had a certain viscosity,the contribution rates keeping around 9.0%and 13.0%respectively.
作者
郭燕红
GUO Yanhong(Guangdong Hydropower Planning and Design Institute,Guangzhou 510635,China)
出处
《广东水利水电》
2019年第4期55-58,共4页
Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower
关键词
用水结构
VAR模型
方差分解
影响分析
water utilization structure
VAR model
variance decomposition
impact analysis
