摘要
为了给京津冀地区防洪减灾及水资源管理提供科学参考,有必要对该地区极端降水事件的变化特征进行探究。根据25个气象站1961—2017年的逐日降水资料,计算了京津冀地区10个极端降水指数。通过因子分析得到4个公因子,进而选取中雨日数(R10)、1日最大降水量(RX1day)、连续无雨日数(CDD)、连续降水日数(CWD)等4个代表性极端降水指数,采用线性倾向率、滑动T检验、反距离权重插值(IDW)、小波分析等方法进行研究。结果表明:(1)近57a来,R10、RX1day、CWD分别以-0.27 d、-1.60 mm、-0.29 d/10a的速率减少,CDD以1.50 d/10a的速率增加。(2)CWD在1995年由增加突变为减少,R10、RX1day、CDD均未发生突变。(3)R10、RX1day、CDD、CWD的第1主周期尺度介于9～25a,相应的平均周期介于4.5～12.8a。(4)RX1day空间差异最大,R10次之,CDD、CWD分布较均。(5)近57a来,京津冀各地区R10、CWD的变化趋势增减不一,但变幅均很小,大部分地区RX1day呈减少趋势,减幅西北低、东南高,而CDD主要呈增加趋势,增幅北高南低。1961—2017年,京津冀地区呈现干旱化趋势,而这种变化与综合ENSO指数(MEI)总体上并无显著关联。
In order to provide scientific reference for the flood control and disaster mitigation as well as the water resources management within Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, the variation characteristics of the extreme precipitation event in the region is explored herein. In accordance with the daily precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations during the period of 1961 to 2017, 10 extreme precipitation indices of the region are calculated. Through the relevant factor analysis, four common factors are obtained, and then four representative extremes precipitation indices, i.e. Moderate rain days ( R10 ), maximum daily precipitation ( RX1day ), consecutive dry days ( CDD ) and consecutive wet days ( CWD ), are selected, which are studied with the methods of linear tendency rate, moving-T test, inverse distance weight interpolation (IDW ) and wavelet analysis, etc. The result shows that (1 ) Since recent 57 years, R10 , RX1day and CWD are decreased with the rates of -0.27 d,-1.60 mm,-0.29 d/10a respectively, while CDD is increased with the rate of 1.50 d/10a.(2 ) CWD is abruptly changed from increase to decrease in 1995, while no abrupt changes occur for R10, RX1day and CDD .(3 ) The first principal period scales of R10 , RX1day , CDD and CWD are ranged from 9 to 25 years, while the corresponding mean periods are ranged from 4.5 to 12.8 years.(4 ) The spatial difference of RX1day is the largest and followed by R10 , while the distributions of CDD and CWD are relatively uniform.(5 ) In the last 57 years, the variation trends of the increase and decrease of R10 and CWD in all the areas of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region are different, but the changing amplituds are less, while RX1day of most of the areas therein exhibit decreasing trends with the decreasing amplitudes of lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast, while CDD mainly exhiblts an increasing trend with the increasing amplitude of higher in the north and lower in the south. The trend of aridification exhibits in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 1961 to 2017, but this change is not significantly related to multivariate ENSO index ( MEI ) index as a whole.
作者
苗正伟
李娜
路梅
徐利岗
MIAO Zhengwie;LI Na;LU Mei;XU Ligang(College of Hydrauli Engineering,Hebei University of Water Resources and Electric Engineering,Changzhou 061001,Hebei,China;Cangzhou Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Hebei Province,Changzhou 061001,Hebei,China;Ningxia Water Conservancy Science Research Institute,Yinchuan 750021,Ningxia,China)
出处
《水利水电技术》
北大核心
2019年第3期34-44,共11页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
河北省水利科技计划项目(2017-62)
关键词
极端降水
因子分析
综合ENSO指数(MEI)
京津冀地区
extreme precipitation
factor analysis
multivariate ENSO index ( MEI )
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
