摘要
本文采用上海市2016年1月至2018年5月125个新能源乘用车车型的月度销量数据,研究财政补贴和免费专用牌照两项政策对新能源汽车需求的影响。使用嵌套Logit需求模型估计得到两个政策变量在效用函数中的参数,并通过反事实分析推断不同的政策组合对新能源汽车需求的影响。研究发现:样本期内新能源乘用车45.57%的销量由两项推广政策同时作用所致;若仅使用一项政策,免费专用牌照政策可贡献样本期内43.09%的销量,而财政补贴政策仅贡献4.85%的销量;两项推广政策贡献了插电式混合动力乘用车以及纯电动乘用车各自50%以上的销量,但对其他类型新能源乘用车的影响很小。以上结果表明,政府推广政策的完全退出很可能导致需求的大幅下降。本文建议包括上海市在内的限牌限行城市在调整推广政策时,应继续保持免费专用牌照对新能源汽车需求的拉动作用,在此前提下,可以考虑财政补贴的加速退坡或完全退出;此外,应推动动力电池和充电桩行业的加速发展,通过降低新能源汽车的生产成本及使用成本,最终突破新能源汽车推广应用的瓶颈。
This paper studied the impact of two promotion policies including fiscal subsidy and free license plate on the demand of new-energy vehicles (NEVs hereafter) based on 125 passenger vehicle models’ monthly sales data from January 2016 to May 2018 in Shanghai. We used nested logit demand model to estimate the parameters of these two policies in consumers’ utility function, and inferred the effects of different policy combinations on NEV demand by counterfactual analysis. Results show that 45.57% of the total sales during the sample period are induced by these two promotion policies. Separately, free license plate policy could induce 43.09% of the total sales while fiscal subsidy policy could induce only 4.85%. The two promotion policies induce more than 50% of the sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles, but have small effects on other types of NEVs. These results indicate that the demand of NEVs could probably drop sharply if these government promotion policies are completely withdrawn in the future. We suggest that those cities with driving restriction policies including Shanghai should keep on using the free license plate policy to support NEV demand, and under this condition, the withdrawal of subsidy programs in these cities could be taken into consideration. Meanwhile, in order to break through the bottlenecks of NEV promotion and application finally, the development of power battery and charging station industries should be accelerated to lower the NEV production cost and using cost.
作者
李国栋
罗瑞琦
谷永芬
LI Guo-dong;LUO Rui-qi;GU Yong-fen(School of Business,SUIBE,Shanghai 201620,China;Institute of Industrial Economics Research,SUIBE,Shanghai 201620,China)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第4期42-61,共20页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目"新实证产业组织视角下银行竞争对企业信贷融资的异质性影响及对策研究"(批准号71403165)
关键词
新能源汽车
政府推广
补贴
牌照
需求估计
new-energy vehicle
government's promotion policies
subsidy
license plate
demand estimation
