摘要
改进Arps递减模型是目前页岩油气井产量预测的主流方法,为了提高该递减模型在页岩油气开发早期单井产量预测中的合理性,本文在大量实际工作积累的基础上,提出通过流动阶段的识别,有助于合理确定拟合数据点;通过调和递减模型与超双曲递减模型结合使用,可以定量反映早期产量预测的不确定性,更合理地预测页岩油气单井未来产量。该方法通过倒推具有较长生产历史的页岩油气井的产量验证,增加了改进Arps递减模型页岩油气井早期产量预测结果与实际的吻合程度,并在北美页岩油气区生产井的实际预测工作中取得了较好的应用效果,对页岩油气井早期产量预测具有一定的实用意义。
The modified Arps decline model is the main method of production prediction of shale oil&gas wells currently,in order to improve the reasonability of single well production forecast by this decline model in shale oil and gas development early stage,based on the practical work,this paper presented that flow period identification can reasonably determine the fitting data points and the combined method between harmonic decline model and the super-hyperbolic decline model which can quantitatively reflect the uncertainty of early production forecast and can predict future production classification.This method is verified by the production of shale oil&gas wells with long production history,increase the shale oil&gas wells early prediction result tallies with the actual production,which practical application good results have been achieved on typical production wells in North America some shale plays.This method has practical significance on shale oil&gas wells production forecasting early.
作者
陈劲松
年静波
韩洪宝
曹健志
郭莉
Chen Jinsong;Nian Jingbo;Han Hongbao;Cao Jianzhi;Guo Li(Sinochem Petroleum E&P Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100031,China)
出处
《非常规油气》
2019年第1期75-80,共6页
Unconventional Oil & Gas
