摘要
考虑到区域旱灾风险的动态演变特征和评估指标信息"部分"未知的灰色不确定性特征,提出了一种基于区间灰数核与灰度的灰色多阶段多指标决策方法,并将其用于河南区域农业旱灾风险评估中。通过构造核序列与灰度序列,定义序列间的相对相似度关系,建立多目标优化模型以确定指标权重;基于灰熵序列与Orness测度构建优化模型以确定阶段权重、集结评估信息,并根据综合相对相似度值评估区域旱灾风险。结果表明,安阳地区春季最易发生旱灾,濮阳、商丘次之。该评估结果可为抗旱减灾工作提供依据。
Considering dynamic evolution characteristics of regional drought risk and the grey uncertainty characteristic of″part″unknown evaluation index information,a grey multi-stage and multi-index decision-making method based on the kernel and grey level of interval grey number was proposed,and this method was applied to regional drought risk assessment of Henan.Firstly,the multi-objective optimization model was established to determine the index weight by constructing the sequences of kernel and grey level and defining the relative similarity relation between the sequences.Then,an optimization model was constructed based on the grey entropy sequence and Orness measure to determine stage weights.Finally,by aggregating evaluation information,the regional drought risk was evaluated according to the value of comprehensive relative similarity and comprehensive relative similarity value.The results show that drought is most likely to occur in spring in Anyang,followed by Puyang and Shangqiu.The evaluation results can provide a basis for drought resistance and disaster reduction.
作者
罗党
钱其存
LUO Dang;QIAN Qicun(North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450045,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
2019年第1期85-90,共6页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71271086)
河南省科技攻关计划项目(182102310014)
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(18A630030)
关键词
旱灾风险评估
区间灰数
核与灰度
相对相似度
多阶段
drought risk assessment
interval grey number
kernel and grey level
relative similarity degree
multi-stage
