摘要
在综合比较时间序列法、回归分析法、投入产出平衡法及弹性系数法的基础上,结合以上方法的各自优点,建立优化改进后的指数加权平均灰色系统预测模型,并通过残差、关联度及后验差等指标来检验灰色系统理论的精度,最后利用淮安船闸2012～2017年的实际数据进行验证。结果表明,改进后的灰色系统预测模型能够较好地满足船闸货运量的预测需求。
Base on the comprehensive comparison of time series method,regression analysis method,input-output balance method and elastic coefficient method,combining the respective advantages of above methods,the improved exponential weighted average grey system prediction model is established.The accuracy of the grey system theory was tested by indicators such as residuals,correlation degree and posterior difference.Finally,using the actual data of Huaian ship lock from2012to2017to verificated.The results show that the improved grey system prediction model can meet the forecast demand of lock cargo volume well.
作者
缪岩
顾建明
MIAO Yan;GU Jianming(Waterway Bureau of Jiangsu Transportation Department, Nanjing 210004, China;Construction Management Office of Jiangsu Provincial Communication Department, Nanjing 210006, China)
出处
《现代交通技术》
2018年第6期67-72,共6页
Modern Transportation Technology
关键词
船闸
货运量预测
灰色系统理论
残差
关联度
后验差
ship lock
cargo volume forecast
grey system theory
residual
correlation degree
posterior difference
