摘要
文章通过构建一个带有房地产市场和股票市场的多部门DSGE模型,就中国近20年股价与房价波动对宏观经济稳定的影响做了深入的探索和分析,结果表明:第一,房价和股价的波动均对主要宏观经济变量有显著影响,其中房价波动的影响更大;第二,房价上涨抑制居民消费,而股价上涨带动居民消费;第三,两种资产价格波动时相互作用关系是非对称的,当房价上涨时,资产配置的替代效应发挥作用导致股价下跌,而当股价上涨时,资产的财富效应发挥作用导致房价上涨。
We investigate the influences of fluctuations of stock price and housing price on macroeconomic stability in China over the past two decades through building a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with the real estate market and the stock market.We find that:Firstly,the fluctuations of housing price and stock price have significant impacts on the main macroeconomic variables,and the fluctuation of housing price is larger;Secondly,the housing price curbs consumer spending and the stock price rising drives residents consumption;Thirdly,the mutual relationship between two types of assets price volatility is asymmetric.When the housing price rises,the function substitution effect of assets allocation leads to the stock price falling.Whereas the stock price rises,the wealth effect of assets makes the housing price rise.
作者
徐加根
罗晶
徐培文
XU Jia-gen;LUO Jing;XU Pei-wen(School of Finance,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;Investment Banking Department of Guizhou Branch,Industrial and Commercial Bank of China,Guiyang 550004,China;Human Resources Department,Agricultural Bank of China,Beijing 100005,China)
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期5-13,共9页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71673225)
关键词
房价
股价
经济稳定
动态随机一般均衡
housing price
stock price
economic stability
dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
