摘要
目的了解上海市城镇职工基本医疗保险统筹基金结余未来的财务运行情况。方法运用系统动力学进行仿真分析。结果上海市城镇职工基本医疗保险统筹基金结余财务运行情况受老龄化和政策变迁带来的参保职工结构变化的影响。医疗保险统筹基金累计结余中短期呈稳定增长趋势,但2029年外来从业人员开始享受退休职工医疗保险待遇后,医疗保险统筹基金累计结余长期可能出现赤字。结论建议建立现收现付制与积累制结合的财务运行制度,重视统筹基金支出控制,重视统筹基金结余保值增值管理。
Objective To understand the financial balance of Shanghai Urban Employees’Basic Medical Insurance Pooling Fund in the future.Methods System dynamics simulation analysis was applied.Results The financial balance of Shanghai Urban Employees’Basic Medical Insurance Pooling Fund is affected by the structure of insured staff in Shanghai changing with aging and policy change.The accumulated financial balance of the pooling fund shows a steady growth trend in the short and medium term,but when the migrant employees begin to enjoy the retirement medical insurance treatment after 2029,the financial balance of the pooling fund is expected to decrease several years later,and deficits may occur.Conclusion It is suggested to establish the fund financial operation system combining the“Pay As You Go”system and the accumulation system.It is also proposed to attach importance to the control of the pooling fund expenditure growth and pay attention to the management of preserving and increasing value of the medical insurance fund.
作者
艾贺玲
AI Heling(School of Social Development and Public Policy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《中国卫生资源》
北大核心
2018年第2期133-139,共7页
Chinese Health Resources
基金
上海中医药大学人文社科课题(2015YSN79)的阶段成果
关键词
上海城镇职工基本医疗保险统筹基金
财务运行
参保职工结构
仿真分析
Shanghai Urban Employee’s Basic Medical Insurance Pooling Fund
financial balance
insured staff structure
system dynamics simulation analysis
