摘要
以概率论和灰色系统理论方法为基础 ,利用灰色概率、灰色概率分布、灰色期望及灰色方差等基本概念 ,针对环境系统的随机不确定性和灰色不确定性 ,建立了基于灰色概率的非突发性环境风险度的量化方法 .将非突发性环境风险归因于环境系统的随机不确定性和灰色不确定性 ,将影响环境容量和环境负荷耗用量的变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布 ,并用具有灰色概率形式的环境风险度来量化环境系统的非突发性失效风险性 .最后 ,将具有灰色概率形式的环境风险度转化成一般的系统失效风险率 ,进而用改进一阶二矩法进行计算 .
The concepts of grey probability, grey probability distribution, grey probability density, grey expectation and grey variance are applied based on the theory of probability and grey system approach. Directing towards stochastic and grey uncertainties of environmental system, a method for determining the level of non-sudden environmental risk is presented based on the concept of grey probability. In this method, the non-sudden environmental risk is attributed to stochastic uncertainty and grey uncertainty of environmental system. The variables influencing on environmental capacity and the consumption of environmental discharge are treated with grey probability distributions, and the non-sudden hazard of environmental system is quantified with the level of environmental risk expressed in the form of grey probability. The level of environmental risk can be transformed into ordinary probabilistic environmental risk and computed using advanced first-order second-moment method. An example of application for calculating the risks of organic pollute in the Cangxi reach of the Jialing River is given. The results can fully reflect and quantify the stochastic and grey uncertainties influencing on environmental quality.
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第4期433-437,共5页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目 (KXCX SW 3 17)资助
关键词
灰色不确定性
灰色概率
环境风险度
环境容量
非突发性风险
grey uncertainty
grey probability
grey probability distribution
level of environmental risk
environmental capacity
