摘要
本文从理论和实证两个方面分析了人口流动对地区经济增长的非线性影响,并利用华东地区78个地级市2005年—2014年的面板数据,采用系统广义矩估计方法,对户籍隔离下的人口结构（常住人口与户籍人口之比）与经济增长之间的关系进行实证检验。研究发现：人口流入与流入地经济增长之间存在＂倒U型＂关系,当地经济增长水平随着人口的流入呈现先增长后降低的趋势;人口流出与流出地经济增长之间存在＂U型＂关系,地方经济增长水平随人口流出表现为先降低后增长的趋势。因此,各地区应根据当地人口结构来实施差别化公共服务和优化产业结构的政策,以此推动经济增长。
This paper analyzes the nonlinear effect of population movement on local economic growth by constructing a theoretical model and using SYS-GMM method by the panel data of 78 prefecture-level city from 2005 to 2014 in eastern China to examine the relationship between population structure based on household register＇s segregation and economic growth. The empirical results reveal that in population inflow cities,the effect of population inflow on economic growth presents as an inverted U-shaped curve,that the local economic growth is shown as firstly increase and then decrease with the increase of population; in population outflow cities,the effect of population outflow on economic growth presents as an U-shaped curve that local economic growth is shown as firstly decrease and then increase with the decrease of population. Therefore,government should implement different policies about the public service and the industrial structure by local population structure to promote economic growth.
作者
李玉姣
Li Yujiao(School of Finance and Taxation,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)
出处
《中南财经政法大学研究生学报》
2017年第3期44-53,共10页
Journal of the Postgraduate of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
