摘要
以辽宁36个气象站1961—2015年逐日气温为基础资料,采用统计学方法分析水稻低温冷害的时空分布特征。基于自然灾害风险理论,评估辽宁水稻低温冷害的危险性。结果表明:1)近55年辽宁水稻延迟型冷害发生站次呈显著减少趋势,20世纪90年代以后,发生范围明显缩小;2)辽宁水稻孕穗期基本无障碍型冷害发生,障碍型冷害主要发生在抽穗开花期,且主要表现为轻度及中度,近55年发生站次略有下降趋势,年际波动较大;3)辽宁各稻区发生延迟型冷害的范围较广,但大部分稻区发生概率较小,为1%~22%;障碍型冷害主要分布在辽宁中部及北部,北部发生概率较大,轻度冷害发生概率为22%~33%,中度冷害发生概率为9%~17%;4)辽宁水稻低温冷害综合危险性指数为0.33~0.91,其中高危险区主要分布在辽宁东北部及营口大石桥稻区,低危险区主要分布在辽宁中部稻区。
By using statistical methods to analyze the daily temperature data of the time period of 1961—2015 from 36 weather stations in Liaoning Province, the current study identified the distribution patterns of chilling injury in rice in Liaoning, and also assessed its risk in this province based on the theory of natural disaster risk analysis. The results were as follows. Firstly, the occurrence frequency of the delayed-type chilling injury in rice showed a decreasing trend over the 55 years in Liaoning, and its occurrence range also noticeably declined since the 1990s. Secondly, the sterile-type chilling rarely occurred at rice booting stage, but mainly occurred at its heading and flowering stages in mild and moderate degrees; the occurrence frequency of the sterile-type chilling injury in rice showed a slight decrease during the 55 years, while having obvious inter-annual fluctuations. Thirdly, the delayed-type chilling injury occurred in a broad range while remaining at a relatively low probability of 1%～22%; on the other hand, the sterile-type hilling injury occurred mainly in central and northern Liaoning, with a higher probability occurring in its northern parts. The mild degree of sterile-type hilling injury had the occurrence probability of 22%～33%, whereas the moderate degree of sterile-type hilling injury had the occurrence probability of 9%～17%. Finally, the comprehensive risk index of chilling injury in rice in Liaoning Province was 0.33～0.91; the high risk areas were mainly distributed in its northeast parts and Dashiqiao rice planting zone, while the low risk areas mainly lay in its central parts.
作者
李雨鸿
张微玮
李琳琳
李辑
胡春丽
王婷
张晓月
LI Yu-hong;ZHANG Wei-wei;LI Lin-lin;LI Ji;HU Chun-li;WANG Ting;ZHANG Xiao-yue(Institute of Meteorological Science of Liaoning,Shenyang 110166,China;Agronomy College,Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110866,China)
出处
《大麦与谷类科学》
2018年第5期47-52,共6页
Barley and Cereal Sciences
基金
辽宁省气象局科学技术研究项目(BA201807)
关键词
水稻
低温冷害
分布特征
危险性评估
Rice
Chilling injury
Distribution pattern
Risk assessment
