摘要
基础设施的建设，不仅受到宏观经济政策等方面的影响，也会带来一定程度的债务风险，这一点已得到了广泛的共识。但也应看到，基础设施投资同时也促进经济增长，而经济增长有助于降低债务风险，因此基础设施投融资活动对地方政府债务风险的影响需要进一步深入研究。基于此，文章对基础设施投融资与地方政府债务风险之间的关系提出了相应的假设，即虽然近年来基础设施强劲的融资需求直接助推了地方政府债务风险的急剧上升，但基础设施对经济增长的促进作用也在一定程度上间接降低了相应债务风险。基于此假设，文章利用实证数据，运用面板的可行广义最小二乘法方法进行检验，而且实证回归结果也通过了稳健性检验。文章的研究结果证实了上述假设，而西部地区由于其债务资金使用效率明显低于其他地区等原因，使得其基础设施的投融资与地方政府债务风险的实证关系并不具有直接关联性。在政策建议上，文章认为地方政府债务使用用途应遵循“黄金法则”，在债务资金的使用效率方面应当“用之有度”。
The impact of infrastructure investment and financing is not only subject to the macro policy, but also brings a certain degree of debt risk, which has been a broad consensus. However, infrastructure investment also promotes economic growth which helps to dilute the debt risk. Whether investment and financing activities inevitably increase the risk of government debt needs further in - depth study. Based on this, the paper Based on this, this paper puts forward the corresponding hypothesis about the relationship between infrastructure investment and local government debt risk, that is, although the strong infrastructure financing demand in recent years has directly boosted the risk of local government debt, the promotion of infrastructure to economic growth has been reduced to a certain extent the corresponding debt risk. Based on this hypothesis, this paper uses empirical data and the empirical method to test the panel, and the results also pass the robustness test. Empirical results confirm the above hypothesis, but the empirical conclusion of the western region is not significant, because their efficiency of debt funds is obviously lower than that in other regions. Finally, in the policy suggestion, it is believed that the golden rule should be followed in the use of local government debt, and the local government should use debt fund under the control.
作者
李升
杨武
凌波澜
Li Sheng;Yang Wu;Lin Bolan(Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijin)
出处
《经济社会体制比较》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期67-76,共10页
Comparative Economic & Social Systems
基金
中央财经大学中财—鹏元投融资研究所课题
关键词
基础设施
投融资活动
地方政府
债务风险
Infrastructure
Investment and Financing
Local Government
Debt Risk
