摘要
【目的】明确不同耕作方式和不同生育阶段气候条件对小麦条锈病的影响。【方法】根据成都平原2007—2016年3种耕作方式(周年旋耕无秸秆还田、麦免稻旋和麦稻双免)下小麦条锈病发病率的面板数据,利用面板数据固定效应模型和极大似然分位回归模型,分析在不同耕作方式下不同生育阶段气候条件对条锈病的影响关系。【结果】固定效应结果表明:周年旋耕无秸秆还田对条锈病发病率的正面影响略低于麦免稻旋和麦稻双免。分位回归动态表明:在幼苗期,日平均温度越高,雨日数、雾日数越多,越容易促使病菌孢子的萌发;在分蘖拔节期,日平均气温和平均湿度的正面影响程度是不同的,随着温度和湿度的不断增大,对条锈病扩散的促进作用逐渐增强;在孕穗抽穗期,日平均气温越高,越有利于条锈病垂直扩展,越是湿润的环境越有利于条锈病发病,造成反复侵染。【结论】3种耕作方式对小麦条锈病的影响不显著,日平均气温和平均湿度对小麦条锈病的影响非常显著。
[Objective] The effect of different tillage methods and different growth stages of climatic conditions on wheat stripe rust, [Method] Analysis the influence of climatic conditions on the stripe rust under different farming methods at different stages of birth, using fixed effect panel data model and the maximum likelihood quantile regression model, according to panel data on the incidence of wheat stripe rust under different farming methods （CK、WZRR、WZRZ） from 2007 to 2016 in Chengdu plain. [Result] The results of fixation effect showed that the positive effect of CK on the incidence of stripe rust was slightly lower than WZRR and WZRZ. The results of quantile regression showed that the higher the daily average temperature, the more rain days, fog days, the easier it is to promote the germination of spores in the seedling stage. At tillering jointing stage, the positive effects of daily mean temperature and mean humidity were different. With the increasing of temperature and humidity, the effect of promoting the spread of stripe rust is increasing gradually. At heading booting stage,the higher the daily average temperature, the more conducive to the vertical expansion of stripe rust, the more humid environment ismore conducive to the occurrence of stripe rust,causing repeated infection. [Conclusion] The effects of the three tillage on wheat stripe rust were not significant, daily average temperature and average humidity were significantly.
作者
刘诚
孙志鹏
季振义
王刚
LIU Cheng;SUN Zhipeng;JI Zhenyi;WANG Gang(Business College,Sichuan Agricultural University,Dujiangyan 611830,Sichuan,China)
出处
《四川农业大学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期605-610,共6页
Journal of Sichuan Agricultural University
基金
国家科技部星火计划项目(2012GA810002)
国家自然科学基金项目(31470305)
关键词
条锈病
耕作方式
气候条件
面板数据固定效应
极大似然分位回归
stripe rust
tillage methods
climatic conditions
panel data fixed effect
maximum likelihood quantile regression
