摘要
基于协整理论和VAR模型的计量经济学方法,对新疆1990～2016年人口素质、三次产业就业水平和城镇化水平之间的关系进行了分析。研究表明:五个变量之间存在长期协整关系;人口素质与城镇化互为格兰杰因果关系,城镇化与第一、二产业就业水平之间是单向格兰杰因果关系,第三产业就业水平对城镇化的格兰杰原因不显著;第二产业就业水平对城镇化的贡献度最大,第三产业就业水平和人口素质的提高对城镇化有持续动力。
Based on relevant data from 1990 to 2016, and by applying cointegration theory, VAR model, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods, this paper analyzes the relationship between the quality of population, the thine industry employment level and the level of urbanization in Xinjiang. It was found that ： there is a long - teml cointegration relationship between the 5 variables ; it is the reciprocal Granger causality relationship between population quality and urbanization level; it is the one - way Granger causality relationship between urbanization level and the first and secondary industry employment level ; there is an insignificant Grainger causality relationship between the employment level of the tertiary industry and urbanization level ; the employment level of the second industry is the most significant contribution of urbanization ; the improvement of the tertiary industry employment level and quality of population become a continuous impetus of urbanization.
作者
李松霞
LI Song-Xia(Faculty of Business,Huaiyin Institute of Technology,Huaian Jiangsu 223001,China)
出处
《淮阴工学院学报》
CAS
2018年第5期67-72,共6页
Journal of Huaiyin Institute of Technology
基金
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目(2017SJB1623)
关键词
新疆
人口素质
就业结构
城镇化
协整
Xinjiang
quality of population
employment structure
urbanization
co - integration
