摘要
1980年代中期以来黄河水沙情势发生了巨大变化,明晰其过程、特征及水沙变化研究的关键所在,有助于聚焦核心科学问题,重点攻关,为黄河流域生态文明建设提供科技支撑。本文系统分析了黄河流域1950—2016年水沙变化过程,梳理了不同阶段各家水沙变化趋势预测成果,辨析了趋势预测结果差异显著的原因。研究表明:黄河水沙锐减,时空减幅不同步,年内利于输沙的流量持续时间和水量、沙量都在减少,含沙量则与水利水保工程建设呈现协同的阶段变化,黄河水沙异源的空间分布格局仍然持续;黄河水沙变化趋势多借助于"水保法"、"水文法"和"物理过程模型法"等开展预测,不同时期的预测成果差异显著,其中机理和机制等的认识不足、评价技术等的缺失及预测条件变化的不确定性等是导致差异显著的主要原因。今后需加强黄河水沙变化机理、措施的群体效应、预测结果可信度评估和治黄策略等关键科学问题研究,为准确预测新情势下黄河水沙变化趋势提供理论基础。
The condition of runoff and sediment in Yellow River has greatly changed since mid-1980 s. Under the new circumstances, a clear understanding in process, characteristics and the key issues of runoffand sediment changes, is of great importance to focus the key scientific problems and support the ecologi-cal civilization constructions in the Yellow River Basin. In this study, the changing process and trend ofrunoff and sediment in the Yellow River Basin during the period of 1950-2016 were analyzed. Meanwhile,the previous predictions and causes of runoff and sediment were reviewed and analyzed. The results showthat the runoff and sediment in the Yellow River declined sharply in recent years, with unsynchronized ofmagnitude. Both the time duration of runoff and the amount of runoff and sediment,which are good for sed-iment transport,were reduced. Changes of sediment concentration were synchronized with soil and water con-servation engineering. In the previous researches, the soil conservation method, hydrologic method and thephysical-based modelling method were adopted in the runoff and sediment predictions. Differences of predictions in different historical period were obvious. Insufficient recognition of mechanism,absence of evaluationtechnique, and uncertainty of prediction conditions, were the main causes. Under the new circumstances,in order to improve predictions in runoff and sediment in Yellow River, more scientific researches need tobe strengthened, including the mechanism of runoff and sediment changes, group effect of the driving fac-tor, the credibility evaluation of runoff and sediment predictions, and management strategy of the Yellow River.
作者
胡春宏
张晓明
HU Chunhong;ZHANG Xiaoming(China lnstitute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第9期1028-1039,共12页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402407)
国家自然科学基金应急管理项目(L1624052
51879281)
流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室项目(SKL2018CG04)
关键词
黄河水沙变化机理
群体效应
趋势预测
集合评估
治理策略
mechanism of runoff and sediment change in Yellow River
group effect
trend prediction
as-sembly assessment
management strategy
