摘要
利用1949—2015年上海台风所提供的热带气旋资料,依据热带气旋登陆华南时的强度,对登陆华南台风的频数、初终旋影响日期、影响期以及登陆位置、强度等气候特征分为3个路段(即西路、中路和东路)进行了分析。结果表明:全年登陆华南热带气旋TCs(指登陆时底层中心附近最大平均风速≥8级的热带气旋)和台风以上(指登陆时底层中心附近最大平均风速≥12级的热带气旋)频数均有不显著的增加趋势,且登陆华南TYs频数占TCs频数的百分比呈不显著的上升趋势,年际变化特征明显,年最多登陆TCs频数是最少登陆TCs频数的9倍,TCs和TYs的年代际变化具有明显的波动特征,登陆时间主要集中在7—9月。登陆地点主要集中在珠江口以西(西路和中路)。登陆华南TCs的平均影响期为78 d,多年平均初旋和终旋影响日期分别为7月8日和9月23日,初旋和终旋影响日期有提早的趋势,其中东路平均10 a的终旋影响日期提前5.8 d。从登陆强度看,整个华南、中路和东路各级热带气旋的强度有不同程度的增强趋势,而从西路进入华南的热带气旋中,强热带风暴的强度是减弱的,而热带风暴和台风以上的强度是增强的。值得注意的是,近十年来以极端强度登陆华南的台风显著增多。
In this study, based on the tropical cyclone data （1949--2015） of three regions （the western track, the mid track and the eastern track）in the South China provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, the numbers, influence date of initial and final tropical cyclone, impact period, landfall position, intensity, and so on of the tropical cyclones are statistically analyzed. The results show that both the annual mean numbers of tropical cyclones （ ≥8 level） and typhoons （ ≥12 level） landed in the South China have a unobvious increase trend. The landing typhoons have an obvious interannual variability with maximum 9 times of the minimum number, and TCs and TYs have obvious fluctuation inter-decadal characteristics. The landfall position are concentrated in the west of the Pearl River Estuary （in western, middle track） and landing time is mainly from July to September. The mean duration cycle of landing in Southern China TCs is 78 days, and the averaged dates of the initial TC and the final TC are July 8 th and September 23rd respectively. The beginning date and end date of TC have got a little earlier trend, especially earlier at the rate of 5.8 d/10 a in the eastern track. As for strength of landing, the landfall intensity of different grade TCs is generally stronger with various degrees in the annual, western, middle and eastern track, but the strength of strong storm entering into South China along the western track is weakened. There was a weak stronger trend of landfall intensity of the storm, typhoon, strong typhoon and super typhoon. It is noteworthy that there is an increase trend of TCs numbers landed in South China with the extreme intensity in the latest 10 years.
作者
罗小莉
姚才
谭金凯
LUO Xiao-li;YAO Cai;TAN Jing-kai(Guangxi Weather Service Center,Nanning 530022 China;Guangxi Meteorological Disaster Mitigation Institute,Nanning 530022 China;School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241 China)
出处
《海洋预报》
北大核心
2018年第4期58-67,共10页
Marine Forecasts
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41465003
41665006
41575051)
关键词
登陆华南
台风
频数
强度
landed in the South China
typhoon
numbers
intensity
