摘要
为进一步了解气候变化与人类活动对湘江流域径流变化的影响,将湘江流域划分为上游、中游、下游三个汇流区间,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法和累积距平法等数理统计法揭示了湘江流域上游、中游、下游径流与气象因素在1961~2013年之间的演变规律,利用弹性系数法定量分析了气候变化与人类活动对湘江流域径流量变化的影响。结果表明,湘江流域径流与降水变化趋势不明显,潜在蒸散发呈下降趋势,径流变化具有较明显的阶段性;湘江流域气候变化与人类活动均起着增加径流的作用,人类活动对上游与中游的影响较大,下游则是以气候变化的影响为主。
In order to obtain the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff variation, the Xiangjiang river basin was divided into three confluence areas： upper reaches, middle reaches and lower reaches. The methods of mathematical statistics including Mann-Kendall test and cumulative anomaly curve were used to analyze the evolution of runoff and meteorological factors in the upper reaches, middle reaches and lower reaches of Xiangjiang river basin during 1961- 2013 years. The elasticity coefficient method was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of climate change and human activities on the runoff variation of Xiangjiang River Basin. The results show that the trend of runoff and precipitation in Xiangjiang River Basin is not obvious, the potential evapotranspiration is decreasing, and runoff change has obviously staggered feature. Climate change and human activities play a role in increasing runoff in Xiangjiang basin. Human activities have a greater impact on the upper reaches and middle reaches, while the lower reaches is mainly affected by the climate change.
作者
邹浩
胡国华
邵全喜
顾庆福
周慧
ZOU Hao 1,2 ,HU Guo-hua 1,2 ,SHAO Quan-xi 1,3 ,GU Qing-fu4 ,ZHOU Hui4(1. School of Hydraulic Engineering;2. Key Laboratory of Water-Sediment Sciences and Water Disaster Prevention of Hunan Province, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China; 3. CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences, Floreat Park WA6014,Australia;4. Hydrology Bureau of Hunan Province, Changsha 410007, Chin)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2018年第9期34-38,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
湖南省重大水利科技计划项目(2013-243-2)
关键词
气候变化
人类活动
径流
湘江流域
climate change
human activities
runoff
Xiangjiang River Basin
