摘要
基于香港地区74站、台湾地区66站和深圳站的雨量资料及4个典型台风暴雨发生期间逐时雨量资料,首先利用改进的统计估算法估算其4h可能最大降水,然后采用分时段地形增强因子法对4个台风暴雨进行分割,去除地形雨分量,最后将概化的辐合雨分量移置到香港地区,与其4h地形增强因子相结合,估算出香港地区4h可能最大降水。结果表明,改进的统计估算法和暴雨移置法估算得到香港地区4h可能最大降水分别为558.5、516.7mm,均高于香港地区4h暴雨纪录。经分析比较,估算结果均比较合理、可靠。
The historical rainfall data of 74 stations in Hong Kong, 66 stations m Taiwan and Shenzhen, and hourly data of rain gauge stations in Taiwan during the period of four representative storms are analyzed. First, an improved statistical method was adopted to estimate the 4 h probable maximum precipitation （PMP）. Secondly, the step-duration-orographic-intensification-factor （SDOIF） method was used to separate the four storms to remove the orographic component. and the convergence component to develop a generalized pattern of the convergence component in Taiwan. Then, the generalized convergence component pattern was transposed to Hong Kong Region. Combining with the 4 h orographic intensification factors, the 4 h PMP in Hong Kong Region was estimated. The results show that the 4 h PMP in Hong Kong Region obtained by the improved statistical method and storm transposition are about 558.5 mm and 516.7 mm, respectively, which are higher than the 4 h storm record in Hong Kong. Comparative analysis verified the rationality of two methods for calculation of the PMP.
作者
兰平
林炳章
陈晓旸
林智琛
LAN Ping1 ,LIN Bing-zhang2 ,CHEN Xiao-yang 3 ,LIN Zhi-chen 3(1. College of Atmospheric Science; 2. College of Hydrometerology;3. College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology, Nanjing 210044, Chin)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2018年第9期6-9,142,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
香港特区政府土木工程拓展署(CEDD)研究项目(GCST 2/D9/RA 63)
2013年江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXLX13_485)
全国山洪灾害防治项目(SHZH-IWHR-72)
关键词
可能最大降水
改进的统计估算法
暴雨移置
分时段地形增强因子法
辐合雨分量
probable maximum precipitation
improved statistical method
storm transposition
step-duration-orographic-intensification-factor method
convergence component
