摘要
在农业现代化进程中,新兴农业技术的开发、扩散与推广应用起着至关重要的作用。农用无人机技术在我国新兴农业技术中有着代表性的意义,在此以其为例,探索新兴农业技术扩散的时空规律。空间维度,建构拟合技术扩散规律的BASS、MI和SWMI模型;时间维度,建构拟合技术发展生命周期的Logistic模型;时空维度,进行新兴农业技术在空间维的分布规律与时间维的演化规律。研究结果表明:新兴农业技术的空间扩散机制受到外部和内部的双重影响,呈现出较为显著的空间聚集效应;率先开展农用无人机技术开发的省市主要是东中部地区,西部地区在该技术领域相对薄弱;新兴农业技术在时间维的扩散机制遵循萌芽期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期的生命周期规律,而且我国新兴农业技术扩散的生命周期较短。根据研究结论,提出三点政策建议,对于我国更好地统筹与协调省际间新兴农业技术扩散具有启示作用。
The development, diffusion and popularization and application of emerging agricultural technologies is important to agricultural modernization. Since agricultural drones can be representative to the emerging agricultural technologies, it is taken to be an example for exploring space-time laws of emerging agricultural technology diffusion. From space dimension, BASS, MI and SWMI models were constructed to fit the laws;From time dimension, Logistic model was used to develop its life cycle.From space-time perspectives, the distribution and evolution laws of emerging agricultural technologies were discovered. The results showed that： internal and external factors influenced the space diffusion mechanism and made the emerging agricultural technologies spatially gathering;the provinces from east and middle regions initiatively developed patent technologies of agricultural drones while the provinces from west region were weak in this field;the time diffusion laws can be described as a life cycle including stages of germination, growth, maturity and recession, and this cycle was relatively short. Three policies were presented according to these conclusions to provide enlightenment for better planning and coordinating the diffusion of emerging agricultural technologies between provinces.
作者
喻登科
熊晟杰
陈琳
YU Deng-ke;XIONG Sheng-jie;CHEN Lin(School of Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330031)
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2018年第26期5-10,共6页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71563027)
江西省软科学研究项目(20161BBA10025)
江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(GL1539)
关键词
新兴农业技术
技术扩散
时空规律
农用无人机
专利技术
Emerging agricultural technology；Technology diffusion；Space-time law；Agricultural drones；Patent technology
